Colorado vs. Iowa State Expert Pick and Prediction – November 27, 2024

COLORADO VS. IOWA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 27, 2024 — Here’s the exact matchup the Big 12 did not want to see when the Maui Invitational was announced last year. A season ago, the Big 12 knew it had scored a coup when it snagged Colorado from the decaying Pac-12, but basketball fans knew that it would create an oddity in the schedule.

Both teams had committed to play in the 2024 Maui Invitational, which typically invites one school per power conference, plus a strong mid-major or two depending on if Chaminade is playing. With the Pac-12 down to two schools, there wasn’t a chance to replace Colorado. All the Maui could do was put the Buffaloes and Cyclones on opposite ends of the bracket and hope they’d find a way to avoid each other.

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Of course, they didn’t. Not only that, but the Big 12 didn’t even plan for this possibility by only giving the schools one matchup. They set the Buffaloes and Cyclones to play home-and-home, which means they’ll definitely meet three times this season and could end up with as many as five matchups if they find a way to meet in the Big 12 tournament and postseason play.

As such, this might look more like a feeling-out process, especially considering it’s only for fifth place in Maui. Sure, it would be a nice Quad 1 win, but both teams are going to get two more shots at each other, with round 2 coming just a month from now in Boulder.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, November 27 at 2:30 p.m.

Where: Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, Hawai’i.

TV: ESPN2

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Colorado vs. Iowa State In-Season Trends

This might have been the easiest bet in the Big 12 when the teams shared a league: Bet the home team to win and call it a day. Over the final nine meetings as Big 12 members, the home team won every single time. 

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Obviously, they haven’t played since 2015, so that won’t tell us anything. So far, Iowa State bettors have been victims of the Cyclones’ pathetic schedule. Iowa State played three awful opponents leading into Maui, so the Cyclones’ only cover was falling short against Auburn on Monday. Colorado has been more inconsistent, as it has been prone to failure to show up at times. The Buffaloes barely survived Northern Colorado in overtime and were listless in a 16-point loss to Michigan State. But otherwise, they’ve been a fine bet.

The Difference-Makers

For Colorado to win this game, it’s going to have to make its 3-point shots. The Buffaloes hit over half of their shots from deep against Connecticut, which lifted them to a one-point win. Julian Hammond III was 4-for-5 from behind the arc in that win, and he’ll need to be big again to get the job done.

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Tamin Lipsey has been quiet so far in Maui, but he leads Iowa State in steals. Colorado is very susceptible to fast break points and mistakes in transition, and Lipsey could have a big day.

The Pick

If you can’t end your possessions with shots, you aren’t beating Iowa State. Colorado is really bad at making sure to end its possession with a look at the basket, ranking 302nd in that category.

That is a recipe for disaster against the Cyclones’ transition play. Iowa State loves to make teams run, and given that this is day three, a running team is going to be at a big advantage. This is the wrong time for Colorado to face the Cyclones. Most likely, the Buffaloes will have to be happy with beating Connecticut for their trip to the islands.