Colorado State vs. Texas Expert Pick and Prediction – August 31, 2024

COLORADO STATE VS. TEXAS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 31, 2024 — It’s been a long, dark winter for Colorado State ever since the way last season ended. The Rams came into the final three games of the season needing a three-game sweep to return to a bowl for the first time since 2017. They took care of business against San Diego State and Nevada, which sent them into the season finale with a chance to even up their record.

Hawai’i had other ideas, beating Colorado State on a last-second field goal to leave the Rams at 5-7 and out of the postseason. It’s hard to remember that Colorado State used to be the class of the Mountain West 15 years ago, given how far the program has fallen since Sonny Lubick was forced out. In the 17 years since Lubick’s departure, CSU has made the postseason just six times.

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Texas certainly knows a thing or two about falling from past heights. The Longhorns’ fall wasn’t as steep as CSU’s, but the expectations are also a lot higher in Fort Collins than in Austin. So far, Steve Sarkisian has met them, guiding Texas into the SEC off an appearance in the College Football Playoff. The Longhorns are the rare team that has two quarterbacks and has two legitimately good quarterbacks. Arch Manning has some of the best bloodlines possible in college football, but he hasn’t been able to beat out Quinn Ewers.

With four starters back on the offensive line, it seems likely that Texas will continue to meet its high standards in 2024. But there is a question as to whether the Horns will care much about this opener. Texas faces Michigan in Week 2, marking the first-ever regular season meeting between the two. And that means the biggest goal for the Longhorns is to get in and get out without losing anyone important.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, August 31 at 3:30 p.m. EST

Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 30th, 2024.

Colorado State vs. Texas In-Season Trends

Last year was a rarity for Texas: the first time in their past five season openers that the Longhorns hadn’t covered the number. The Longhorns were never in danger of losing the game; they bested Rice by 27. But the Owls covered the 35.5-point spread in part because the Longhorns were more focused on their upcoming game at Alabama. Texas’ top priority in that game was getting out healthy, not in putting up a big number.

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Colorado State has a history of showing up when its back is against the wall. The Rams have been an underdog of at least three touchdowns 13 times in the past 12 seasons, and they covered the number 10 times. That included last year, when they were catching 23.5 against Deion Sanders and Colorado and lost in double overtime. However, it does not include 2022, when the Rams were 31-point underdogs at Michigan and lost 51-7.

Weather

This isn’t going to be pleasant. The one plus is that at least the teams should avoid a thunderstorm. But temperatures will sit in the low 90s, with the heat index topping triple digits. In short, it’s typical August in Austin.

The Difference-Makers

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi throws the ball for a lot of yardage. The problem is that he doesn’t always throw it to a guy in green. Last year, Fowler-Nicolosi threw for 22 touchdowns and 3,460 yards, but he tossed 16 interceptions and CSU finished minus-5 in the turnover battle for the year.

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Is CJ Baxter ready to step up as the starter? Baxter was a solid No. 2 running back behind Jonathon Brooks last year, but Brooks is now in the NFL. Baxter has to shoulder the load as the new top running back for Ewers.

The Pick

Texas has a big edge in terms of talent, and the Longhorns will want to at least provide some kind of show after paying Colorado State $1.8 million to come to Austin. But their goals are more focused on beating Michigan and getting a signature win in Week 2.

Colorado State has improved some and is likely to keep this a bit closer than expected. Texas is in no danger of losing, but the Longhorns will probably pull starters earlier than expected. That should keep the game closer than it should be.