Colorado Avalanche vs. Winnipeg Jets Pick and Prediction – April 30, 2024

COLORADO AVALANCHE VS. WINNIPEG JETS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 30, 2024 — This was supposed to be the year that it all came together for Winnipeg. The Jets had the defense and the goaltender needed to win in April and May, and the offense would do just enough to get the job done. They’d dominated Colorado all year, and they’d have no problem handling the Avalanche again when the playoffs began.

Yeah, about that…it’s all gone wrong for Winnipeg in this series. The Jets won the first game, but they didn’t play their style of hockey in the win. They played Colorado’s game and survived because of poor goaltending. Once the Avs got better play from their netminder, the series hasn’t been close.

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The Avalanche have outscored the Jets 16-5 in the past three games, and Winnipeg just looks more helpless as the series progresses. Connor Hellebuyck, so good in the regular season, has been abysmal in this series. He allowed another four goals before getting pulled, and with the Jets now losing Brenden Dillon, an already overworked defense gets another setback in the face of Colorado’s pressure.

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The Jets will have the Winnipeg White Out working in their favor, but little else seems to be going their way. It looks much like last year against Vegas, when the Peggers won the first game and then got blown away in four straight.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Tuesday, April 30 at 9:30 p.m. EST

Where: Canada Life Arena, Winnipeg, Manitoba

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 69% on Colorado

Public Money: 74% on Colorado

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 30th, 2024

Colorado Avalanche vs. Winnipeg Jets In-Season Trends

It’s hard to find a better example of a team taking the trends and completely flipping them on their heads than this series. Colorado was second-best to Winnipeg in all three meetings in the regular season, getting outscored 17-4 in the regular season. Then the first game happened, and the Jets dropped another seven on the Avalanche, making the margin 24-10 in 2023-24.

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Since then, it’s been all Colorado. Even more staggering is how the Avalanche have totally blown up the idea of momentum in this postseason. The Jets closed the season with eight consecutive wins and didn’t allow more than three goals in any of them. The Avalanche haven’t scored fewer than five in a game in this series.

Players to Watch

You certainly cannot fault Mark Scheifele for Winnipeg’s failures. The Jets’ longest-tenured player (he was the team’s first draft pick when they moved from Atlanta in 2011) has played like a veteran star, scoring five points in the series and scoring in every game of the playoffs.

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But Nathan MacKinnon has been even better, scoring seven points for the Avalanche. MacKinnon has been so effective that you’d have to take -140 odds or worse to get him to score two points in this game. That’s pretty remarkable.

The Pick

There seems to be no way back here for Winnipeg. The Jets just have not adjusted to Colorado’s style of hockey and don’t seem capable of making that change. To play this way, Winnipeg needed to have top-quality goaltending and sharp defense.

That has not come close to happening. Hellebuyck looks lost and Winnipeg has looked a step behind Colorado pretty much from the beginning of the series. The Jets really shouldn’t even have made it back to Winnipeg after lucking out in Game 1; this should have been over in four. But Colorado likely finishes the job here.