Colorado Avalanche vs. Winnipeg Jets Pick and Prediction – April 21, 2024

COLORADO AVALANCHE VS. WINNIPEG JETS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 21, 2024 — All year long, the consensus about the Winnipeg Jets has been good field, no hit. The Jets have spent most of the year with a middling offense, but scoring more than two goals on them really takes some work.

Except…the offense hasn’t been middling against the Avalanche. Whenever the Jets see the maroon of the Colorado Avalanche, something comes to life on that side of the puck. In three meetings with Colorado, Winnipeg pounded the Avalanche by a combined 17-4, winning all three comfortably. In their most recent meeting, it was one-way traffic, as the Jets won 7-0.

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Both teams have been adamant that that game wasn’t the real Avalanche. But the fact remains that Colorado’s goaltending is a big issue in this series. Alexandar Georgiev simply hasn’t been up to par this season, and he’s the more consistent of the two Avalanche netminders.

Winnipeg counters with a likely Vezina Trophy finalist in Connor Hellebuyck and the memory of barely showing up last season. Last year, Winnipeg started the series with Vegas in brilliant fashion with a Game 1 win, then got drilled in four straight. Jets coach Rick Bowness didn’t mince words after that series, saying that he was disgusted with his team’s showing. Sunday represents the first test to see if the Jets have learned anything.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Sunday, April 21, 2024, at 7 PM EST

Where: Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, Manitoba

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 53% on Colorado

Public Money: 68% on Winnipeg

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 21st, 2024

Colorado Avalanche vs. Winnipeg Jets In-Season Trends

Here’s one secret to how hot John Fredericks is in hockey: riding the Jets. Winnipeg comes into this game on an eight-game win streak, and the Jets haven’t allowed more than three goals in any of those games. Since losing a home game to Ottawa on March 30, Winnipeg hasn’t lost, and it hasn’t given up more than three goals since a 4-1 loss to Vegas on March 28.

The Avalanche don’t have anywhere near that kind of momentum. Colorado did win its season finale against the limping Oilers, but otherwise, the Avalanche haven’t beaten anyone but Minnesota in April. The Avs finished with five playoff teams and two games against the Wild, and they went 1-4 against the teams that are still playing hockey.

That included two dismal defensive games against Winnipeg and Dallas, both of whom lit the lamp seven times.

Players to Watch

As great as Nathan MacKinnon is, Cale Makar needs to make a difference in this series. He only faced Winnipeg twice this year, and he contributed no points and was a minus-4 in those games. If he’s not Robin to MacKinnon’s Batman, it’s hard to see the Avalanche lasting very long in this series.

Connor Hellebuyck has a proven playoff pedigree, but the pressure is still on for him in this series. Last year, Winnipeg’s offense didn’t get the job done and the Golden Knights eventually overwhelmed Hellebuyck and the defense for 18 goals in the final four games. With Blake Wheeler now wearing a different shade of blue in New York, the Jets are even less offensively-inclined. Hellebuyck has to look more like his 2022 playoff version than 2023.

The Pick

The Avalanche have seemed off ever since they failed to slam the door on Seattle in last year’s postseason. Last season, the Avalanche had home-ice advantage against the Kraken and lost three of four in Denver, including Game 5 and Game 7. All of those games had one thing in common: two goals or fewer for the Avalanche.

Winnipeg squeezes the life out of teams much more than Seattle ever did. The Kraken showed that Colorado can be shut down in the playoffs, and the Jets are the perfect team to do it.