Colombia vs. Brazil Expert Pick and Prediction – July 2, 2024

COLOMBIA VS. BRAZIL EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – July 2, 2024 — It’s been a while since Colombia came out on the wrong end of a match. Los Cafeteros have been on an incredible run, avoiding defeat in 25 consecutive matches. The last time Colombia came up short was in February 2022, and that came against world champion Argentina.

But while that speaks to Colombia’s overall success, it also speaks to the Coffee Growers’ overall struggle in South America. Colombia has become a world power in its own right, but it’s still lived in the shadows of South America’s traditional powers. Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay have tended to dominate South America, with Colombia trying to break into that upper tier. Success in Copa America would go a long way toward getting there, as Los Cafeteros have long been a step shy in this tournament.

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Colombia finds itself in that position again, as it’s certain to make the quarterfinals for the 13th time in 14 Copa Americas. But only one of those has resulted in Colombia lifting the trophy, and that was when they hosted in 2001. Brazil, by contrast, has won five Copa Americas in that stretch and played for the title three other times. The Selecao have been just as dominant on the continent as in the rest of the world, essentially being a coin flip to make the championship match for the past 30 years.

But this Brazil side has not been very good by its standards. It would take a calamity of epic proportions for Brazil to not advance (Costa Rica would have to make up a six-goal deficit), but it’s not beyond the realm of possibility. On the other end of the spectrum, a win means Brazil tops Group D. And topping Group D is massive, thanks to the United States flaming out. Winning the group lands a quarterfinal with Panama, while second place gets 15-time champion Uruguay. And while both Colombia and Brazil knew they’d probably need to go through Uruguay at some point, both would rather do so after La Celeste has faced a grueling quarterfinal with the other one.

Kickoff

Teams: Colombia vs. Brazil

When: Sunday, July 2 at 9 p.m. EST

Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.

TV: FS1

Spread: Colombia +1/Brazil -1

Moneyline: Colombia +330/Brazil -115/Draw +255

Totals: Over 2.5 (+105)/Under 2.5 (-130)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of July 1st, 2024 

Scouting Colombia

James Rodriguez remains the captain and a vital part of Colombia’s attack. With him and Rafael Santos Borre up front, there’s a decidedly Brazilian flavor to this coffee, with a hint of English in the person of Luis Diaz. Colombia’s top stars either ply their trade in the Brazilian league or in Europe’s top leagues, and the results have spoken for themselves. This is a side that presses the issue regularly and can confidently defend. In short, they’re dangerous, which is why they’ve gone 25 straight without a loss.

Scouting Brazil

2023 was nothing short of disastrous for Brazil. The best way to sum it up is this: if World Cup qualifying ended right now, Brazil would just barely scrape its way in. Given that the Brazilians have never failed to appear at a World Cup, the fact that they’re in sixth in CONMEBOL is troubling. But that’s their lot after six matches, including a 2-1 loss to Colombia.

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Brazil is very much in transition, opting to go with a Spanish attack and an English midfield. Five of its forwards compete in Spain’s domestic league, while all but one of its midfielders plays in England. That’s seemed to leave Brazil a little disjointed as it tries to get on the same page. Its win over Paraguay was a step forward after an ugly scoreless draw with Costa Rica. Vinicius Junior scored twice last time, and getting him rolling would be huge.

Best Bets

Both Teams to Score, Yes (-115): Both teams have found the net in four of Brazil’s past five matches and three of five for Colombia. Both sides want a result of some kind, so this isn’t likely to be a dull, chance-free match. This should open up and lead to goals.

Colombia Double Chance (-110): The disrespect shown to Colombia is ridiculous. This side has won 10 matches in a row (including one over Brazil), hasn’t lost in 25 matches, but Brazil is still a heavy favorite. Los Cafeteros can easily get the point they need to top the group.

Draw 1-1 (+475): This carries the highest possibility. Brazil would love to win, but Colombia is good enough to stand up to Brazil and get a point out of this. This is also a potential semifinal match, so neither side will want to show much of its hand here. A goal each seems the right play.