Colombia vs. Argentina Expert Pick and Prediction – July 14, 2024

COLOMBIA VS. ARGENTINA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – July 14, 2024 — What does Argentina have left in the tank? The world champions have more closely resembled France than Spain during Copa America, as they’ve labored through their half of the bracket. Argentina has looked tired both physically and mentally, as the pressure of wearing the crown and age both seem to be catching up with the Albiceleste.

It hasn’t hurt them yet at the Copa America, in part because they got the weaker half of the bracket. They drew a group of Chile, Peru and Canada, a manageable trio. They survived a nervous battle with Ecuador and then handled a rematch with Canada, but they haven’t really faced a squad that’s on their level.

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That’s not the case for Colombia. Los Cafeteros have been tested and come out looking great every time. They ripped through a group that included Brazil, edged Uruguay in the semifinals and haven’t lost a match in any of their past 28 attempts. Of course, the last team to actually beat Colombia was Argentina, which is why many are hesitant to accept that the torch might have passed.

Colombia has never won the Copa America on foreign soil, and this represents just its second time on this stage. It’s played with flair throughout this tournament and hasn’t shown any signs of stumbling. And while Argentina plays with the pressure of trying to repeat, Colombia can play loose here.

Kickoff

Teams: Colombia vs. Argentina

When: Sunday, July 14 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.

TV: Fox

Spread: Colombia +0.5/Argentina -0.5

Moneyline: Colombia +340/Argentina +110/Draw +195

To Win the Title: Colombia +145/Argentina -195

Totals: Over 1.5 (-175)/Under 1.5 (+145)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of July 14th, 2024 

Scouting Colombia

Colombia’s a difficult team to figure out, because the goals can come from anywhere. In two knockout stage matches, Colombia has scored six goals, and they’ve all come from different scorers.

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Getting the early goal has been key for Colombia in the knockout stages, as they scored eight minutes in against Panama and got the only goal in the first half against Uruguay. Scoring first will be even more critical this time around, as Colombia has to force Argentina out of its defense.

Scouting Argentina

The late strike has been a hallmark of Argentina matches. In four of five matches, a goal has been scored in the final 10 minutes of the match. During the group stage, it was always Argentina finding the goal, but the Albiceleste conceded in stoppage time to Ecuador. That nearly derailed the tournament in the quarterfinals, as they only survived on penalties.

Lautaro Martinez is now a sure bet to win the Golden Boot, as he leads all scorers with four. Colombia has to keep tracks on him while not losing Lionel Messi. Even though Messi is clearly starting to show signs of aging, he’s still quite dangerous. Most teams fall short against Argentina because they lose one or the other, and Colombia must stay on both.

Best Bets

Both Teams to Score (+125): Good odds are available because of both teams’ defenses. Argentina has conceded one goal in the tournament, while Colombia has allowed two. But Argentina’s faced such soft opposition that it’s more likely the lack of attacks than their own skill that’s caused that many clean sheets. Both teams have a good chance to find the net here.

Colombia ML (+310): There’s no need to get aggressive here with these odds. If Colombia wins the match, you’ll get a really good payout here.

Colombia 2-1 (+1200): It is never easy to pick against Argentina, but it feels like the right move here. Colombia has looked the stronger side and has tested itself throughout. Argentina hasn’t shown it can handle the toughest tests in this tournament. It feels like the Coffee Growers’ time to shine.