Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Expert Pick
Sean Payton has his team right in the thick of playoff contention. They have a 70% chance to make the playoffs, and it will jump to 77% with a win on Monday night against the Browns. It will dip to 52% if they lose. They are sitting pretty heading into the final quarter of the season, while the Browns are playing for next season at 3-8. Jameis Winston played spoiler last week to the Steelers and will look to do it again in a primetime spot. Read more Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos expert pick.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns took advantage of snowy conditions in Cleveland last week to beat the Steelers 24-19. Nick Chubb scored the go-ahead touchdown with 57 seconds remaining for the Browns and stopped the Steelers’ offense to secure the victory.
Wide receiver Cedric Tillman (concussion) will not play this week. Cornerback Myles Harden (tibia) and safety Juan Thornhill (calf) have been ruled out. Tackle Jedrick Willis (knee) will also miss this week.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos took care of business against the Raiders last week, 29-19. Bo Nix had another stellar game with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Courtland Sutton, his favorite target, caught both touchdowns.
The injury report for the Broncos is pretty clean for this point in the season. Wide receiver Josh Reynolds (hand) was a full participant this week but is still questionable. Cornerback Riley Moss (knee) is the only player ruled out for the Broncos.
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Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Head-To-Head
The Broncos’ defense has been one of the best units in the league this season and has relieved a lot of pressure from Bo Nix. They allow the second-fewest points per game (16.8) and have only allowed 13.7 over their last three games. Pat Surtain II has been dominant in defending receivers this season. He has three interceptions (one pick-six) and eight pass deflections. Riley Moss has also been huge on the other side, and they will miss him this week. Linebacker Nik Bonitto leads all linebackers with 10 sacks this season and will disrupt this game. The Browns allow 4.3 sacks per game, which leads the league.
Bo Nix has not been your typical rookie quarterback. He has 16 touchdowns and six interceptions, with four touchdowns on the ground. His success should be credited to his defense, which has made his job easier by limiting points, but Sean Payton should not be overlooked. He is setting up to succeed and not overcomplicating the offense. They only average 111.6 rushing yards per game, but they can put themselves in advantageous down and distance anyway. Nix looks like the franchise quarterback and is a big reason they are on the brink of the postseason.
The Browns’ offense has transformed with Winston under center. There are still some issues, like sacks and turnovers. They have a -7 turnover differential, while the Broncos are at +2. Winston has four interceptions, with three coming in one game against the Chargers. The Broncos should give him trouble this week. I would not expect Nick Chubb to help, either. The Broncos allow 96.2 rushing yards per game, and Chubb has not been great. He averages three yards per attempt and has not topped 60 yards despite averaging 14.6 rushing attempts per game. It could be a long game for the Browns.
Prediction
Over/Under
Do not let last week persuade you that the Browns are good. The conditions played a huge role in that game, and the Steelers had a short week after a tough game against the Ravens. The Broncos should stop their offense, and they only average 22 points per game themselves. Under 42
Spread
The Browns are going to struggle against the pressure of this defense. Winston will make mistakes, and the Broncos will capitalize like they have all season. I feel comfortable laying six with them. Broncos -6
Player Prop
The Browns have struggled to defend wide receivers. They allow about 10 receptions per game to the position but give up 15.86 yards per catch, the highest in the league. Sutton has a catch over this number in eight of 12 games this season. This matchup should provide plenty of opportunities to secure a deep pass from Nix. Courtland Sutton Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards -125
