Clemson vs. Texas Expert Pick and Prediction – December 21, 2024

CLEMSON VS. TEXAS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 21, 2024 — After two blowouts in the first two games of the College Football Playoff, now comes a game that most expect to be a blowout. Texas has only lost twice all year, and both defeats came against No. 2 seed Georgia.

Clemson played Georgia too — and the Tigers lost 34-3 on a neutral field. In fact, both teams played and lost to Georgia in the same stadium. The difference was, the Longhorns fell in overtime at the end of the season, while Clemson was never in the game in the opener.

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And that’s why the line has been set as high as it is. Texas has mostly looked solid throughout the year and has stockpiled some good wins in its first year in the SEC. Other than winning the ACC, Clemson didn’t really do anything to suggest it belonged in the playoff. The Tigers’ best win of the year until the ACC title game came over a 7-5 Pittsburgh team that also hadn’t really beaten anyone. There were seven teams that won more than half of their games in the ACC this year, but the only one Clemson beat all year was SMU.

And as Penn State just showed, SMU wasn’t anything special. Most of the country already suspected that was the case, but now we have irrefutable proof that the Mustangs really weren’t one of the 12 best teams in the country. And with Clemson coming off barely beating SMU, there seems to be little chance of the Tigers besting Texas.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, December 21 at 4 p.m.

Where: DKR Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas

TV: TNT

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Clemson vs. Texas In-Season Trends

Clemson wasn’t exactly a good bet down the stretch. The Tigers went just 2-4 ATS against FBS opposition, and one of those was SMU. Clemson is built off making big plays on defense, but when the offense doesn’t cooperate, the Tigers can get exposed pretty regularly. That happened against South Carolina, and it happened more often than it should have in the ACC.

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Texas has also had its problems covering. The Longhorns have had two really good games over the second half: blasting Oklahoma and Florida. Otherwise, Texas has just done enough to get the job done. Big spreads have been a problem for the Longhorns, who couldn’t cover double-digit numbers against any of Kentucky, Vanderbilt or Arkansas.

Weather

It’s going to be the one game where weather isn’t an issue. Temperature will sit at 60 degrees and sunny, making for ideal conditions.

The Difference-Makers

Can Cade Klubnik find any kind of holes in this Texas defense? If the Longhorns can suffocate the Clemson defense and force a mistake, the Tigers don’t have a good way to respond. Once Clemson gets desperate, things start to unravel pretty quickly.

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Quinn Ewers really could be a lot better than he has been. And that’s a worry for Texas, because turnovers are Clemson’s one real chance in this game. Ewers doesn’t have to win the game for Texas; he just needs to not lose it.

The Pick

Clemson really isn’t good enough to play at this level. The ACC was not a quality conference this year, and the Tigers didn’t really prove themselves against anybody all year. Their best win was SMU, which just showed how feast-or-famine it really is.

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Clemson was fortunate enough to play the same bad version of SMU that Penn State just got. Texas is a stronger squad in every way and won’t make the same mistakes that the Mustangs did. It seems that the only ones capable of beating Texas in this game are the Longhorns themselves. That’s not going to happen.