Clemson vs. SMU Expert Pick and Prediction – December 7, 2024

CLEMSON VS. SMU EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 7, 2024 — Welcome to the biggest game that SMU football has seen in over 40 years. The Mustangs were already thinking win and in for the postseason, but with Boise State and Arizona State both winning, they probably have no margin for error.

Best-case, if SMU loses, they’d drop to the No. 12 seed. Worst-case, they’d drop out of the field entirely if the CFP committee decides to put a three-loss SEC team in over them. Given that the Mustangs don’t exactly have an eye-popping resume outside of running through the ACC, that’s not impossible. Of course, with a win, SMU will have a first-round bye and a likely spot in the Fiesta Bowl, which would be the culmination of everything they’ve worked for since getting the death penalty in 1987.

Related: UNLV vs. Boise State Pick and Prediction

Clemson has no ambiguity: the Tigers have to win or they’re going to play in some minor bowl game. If they win, they’re likely going to Notre Dame as the No. 12 seed, as there’s little chance they catch Arizona State now. But given where the year started for Clemson, they’d take a trip to South Bend.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, December 7 at 8 p.m.

Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

TV: ABC

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Clemson vs. SMU In-Season Trends

It’s tough to get a good gauge on SMU at this point, as the Mustangs’ schedule just has not been up to par. SMU mostly drew a weak ACC slate and has feasted on it, similar to what Indiana did in the Big Ten. Like Indiana, SMU has been a fine bet, covering in six of its past eight games.

Related: Why Ohio State Should Fire Ryan Day

Clemson remains a poor bet as usual. The Tigers usually get too much money bet on them and have the spread too high as a result. They’re just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games, only covering against Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.

Weather

The weather shouldn’t be that bad here. The temperatures will sit in the mid 40s, and it’s supposed to be clear and calm.

The Difference-Makers

Kevin Jennings wasn’t supposed to be the SMU quarterback this year, but he has run with things this season. The Mustangs turned to him early in the year, and he’s been excellent making decisions with the football. He’s not big on running the ball, but he has 19 touchdown passes for the year against seven interceptions.

Related: Mack Brown’s Firing

Clemson has a veteran quarterback now in Cade Klubnik, who has been excellent with the football this year. He’s thrown 29 touchdown passes against five interceptions, and he’ll have to be strong with decision-making to get the Tigers to the playoff.

The Pick

Neither team has proven itself against good competition this year. SMU has looked good against second-tier teams, but we really don’t know how good the Mustangs are. Clemson is in a similar situation, having mostly beaten bad teams.

Related: Defense of James Franklin

The teams have a common opponent in Louisville, and the way they played against the Cardinals is likely a clue. SMU handled Louisville on the road, winning by a touchdown. Clemson was at home against the Cardinals and was never really in the game in a 33-21 loss. That disparity probably means that SMU is the right way to go here.