Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Expert Pick and Prediction – July 7, 2023

CINCINNATI REDS VS. MILWAUKEE BREWERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – July 7, 2023 — Andrew Abbott started his rise a month ago against Milwaukee. And he and the Reds haven’t looked back. Abbott started the year at Double-A Chattanooga, but he has quickly moved through the minors and made his debut with a one-hit shutout of the Brewers on June 5:

As for Milwaukee themselves, two questions abound. First, have the Brewers’ hitters learned anything from their first time against Abbott? Milwaukee isn’t exactly known for hitting, as the Brewers’ .230 average ranks third-worst in the majors.

Second, and more important, was Corbin Burnes’ most-recent start a sign that he’s back or a flash in the pan? After three years of keeping his ERA below 3, Burnes’ ERA sits at 4.00 this season, and he’s allowed 13 runs in his past three starts.

Both men will be players to watch in tonight’s matchup. But in time-honored fashion, we look first at the current odds.

The Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of July 7th, 2023

First Pitch

When: Friday, July 7th at 8:10 p.m. EDT

Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee

Starting Pitchers: Andrew Abbott, CIN (4-0, 1.21 ERA, 42 K’s) vs. Corbin Burnes, MIL (6-5, 4.00 ERA, 96 K’s) 

Public Bets: 64% on Cincinnati

Public Money: 85% on Cincinnati

Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee In-Season Trends

If Cincinnati can take two out of three here, it’d be a certain sign that the Reds are the team to beat in the NL Central. That’s in part because the Cubs and Pirates are fading. And it’s also because the Brewers have dominated Cincinnati over the past two seasons.

The Reds are just 8-21 against the Brewers over the past two seasons. That includes three losses out of four this year at Great American Ball Park.

But the Reds have looked great on the road lately, going 22-6 in their past 28 away from Cincinnati.

Milwaukee’s also struggled when facing a left-hander, going just 2-5 in its past seven at home against lefties. However, the OVER has dominated in divisional matchups; it has cashed in six of the Brewers’ past seven against the NL Central.

Players to Watch

Since Abbott’s debut, the Reds haven’t lost with him on the mound. His most recent start was his best one, as he fanned 12 and lasted 7 2/3 innings in a 4-3 win over San Diego. Only one of his first six opponents has tagged him for more than a run, and he’s racked up 30 strikeouts in his past three starts.

One of the other key men highlighted earlier, Burnes has mostly missed bats this season. He’s notched seven strikeouts or more in five of his past seven trips to the hill. The last time he faced the Reds, he fanned seven in six innings, which could make this a matchup of who blinks first.

But Burnes held the Reds to two hits last time he faced them, so there weren’t many hitters who gave him problems in that game. One who did was Jonathan India, who notched four hits over the past two games against Washington, including a pair of homers. Against Burnes, India sent a ball into the seats for a solo shot, one of just two runs Burnes gave up that night.

And lastly, Christian Yelich has swung a hot bat in the month of July so far. He’s 8-for-17 so far this month, and pounded the Cubs for seven hits in 14 at-bats earlier this week. Yelich did fan three times when Abbott faced Milwaukee, however, which makes it interesting to see if he’s learned from that matchup.

The Pick

With Milwaukee’s offense struggling and Abbott already showing he knows how to handle this lineup, I don’t expect much offense from either side. Maybe the offense shows up against the bullpens, but I think Abbott and Burnes both bring their good stuff in this matchup.

Cincinnati’s been dynamite on the run line, and with the spread favoring Milwaukee, it makes sense to make a conservative play here.