Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Expert Pick and Prediction – June 26, 2023

CINCINNATI REDS VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – June 26, 2023 — There’s no other way to say it: the Reds have been walking a tightrope. Out of their 12-game win streak, six wins came by exactly one run.

That isn’t something a team can sustain long-term. The Reds found that out the hard way against Atlanta, dropping a pair of 7-6 decisions to end their winning streak and the series.

Things get no easier for Cincinnati against Baltimore, which is kind of stuck in no man’s land at this point in the season. The Orioles have shown pretty conclusively that they’re right up there with Tampa Bay and Texas as one of the American League’s best squads. But the Rays have just been too good too consistently for Baltimore to worry about catching them.

Their main concern is continuing to build on what they’ve already done to finish in the top half of the AL East meat grinder.

That makes this an important homestand against the Reds and Twins, because the Orioles head to New York next week for four games against the Yankees. Even though Cincinnati’s a first-place team, the Reds would only rank fourth in the AL East. That makes this a pressure-packed situation for Baltimore, as a series win here is vital for their overall future.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Monday, June 26th at 7:05 p.m. EDT

Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore

Starting Pitchers: Brandon Williamson, CIN (1-0, 5.40 ERA, 27 K’s) vs. Cole Irvin, BAL (1-3, 7.71 ERA, 24 K’s) 

Public Bets: 60% on Cincinnati

Public Money: 67% on Cincinnati

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 26th, 2023

Cincinnati vs. Baltimore In-Season Trends

The Reds’ tendency to play one-run games has made them a very attractive spread bet throughout the season.

Out of 78 Cincinnati games this season, 32 have been decided by one run, second only to Cleveland. The Reds’ recent ascendance has left them as the underdog most nights, so taking them on the spread usually means you’re getting the extra run with them as you would here.

Cincinnati has also done very well against the American League, winning six straight against AL opposition. However, Baltimore isn’t among those teams.

The Reds are winless in their past four visits to Camden Yards, and the UNDER has cashed in four of five meetings. That fits well with how Baltimore does against lefties: the UNDER has cashed in six straight Oriole games when facing a left-handed pitcher.

Players to Watch

It’s a bit of a homecoming for Jake Fraley in this matchup. The Reds’ left fielder grew up in Frederick, just 40 miles away from Baltimore. He rides a five-game hitting streak and has homered in three of his past four games to move into the team lead in both homers and batting average for the Reds.

Anthony Santander was fantastic in the Seattle series for the Orioles, hitting a home run in every game. Santander has a higher batting average against left-handers, but he’s only hit three home runs out of 14 against lefty pitching this year.

Things might change in this game, though: 11 MPH winds from the south will send balls toward left-center, which is the right part of the park at Camden Yards because of much lower fences compared to right field.

The Pick

With the pitching matchup not being great for either team, backing the Reds on the spread makes the most sense here. Cincinnati’s shown that it’s never really out of a game, and Baltimore’s not really gotten much out of Irwin this season.

The wind blowing out also sets itself up well for both offenses to power their way through the game as long as the storms in the Baltimore area don’t get in the way. Expect some offense here.