Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Expert Pick – June 18, 2023
CHICAGO SKY VS. WASHINGTON MYSTICS EXPERT PICK — JUNE 18, 2023 — Happy Sunday basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. After my earlier look at Mercury v Liberty, here is another of the featured games from today’s slate, as the Chicago Sky (5-6) take on the Washington Mystics (6-4).
Will the Sky put an end to their recent losing streak or will the Mystics push their winning streak to two games?
Here is a look at which team has the edge in the matchup and why.
Tipoff
When: June 18, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET
Where: St. Elizabeths East Entertainment and Sports Arena, Washington DC
TV: NBCS-DC, and Monumental
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 18, 2023
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics – Season Trends
The Sky posted five wins in their first eight games. Since that time, though, they have fallen off a bit, as they have suffered losses in each of their last three outings against the Los Angeles Sparks Las Vegas Aces, and the Indiana Fever. Marina Mabrey was the team’s leading scorer in the last two games, scoring 20 and 36 points, respectively.
Chicago is ranked eighth in scoring (80.2 points per contest) and ninth in efficiency (100.6 points per 100 possessions). Fortunately, this ball club plays a little bit better on defense. Chicago is ranked sixth in scoring defense, giving up 81.9 points per contest. The team is ranked sixth in defensive rating, allowing 102.8 points per 100 possessions.
On the other side of this matchup, we have a Washington team that has won three of its last four games. This includes an 88-69 win against the Phoenix Mercury on Friday night. Elena Delle Donne led the Mystics with 17 points and four assists.
Going for points
From a scoring perspective, the Mystics fail to make the grade. They are ranked 11th in both points allowed (75.7) and defensive rating (95.9 points per 100 possessions).
However, If you subscribe to the notion that defense wins championships, then you will love what Washington brings to the table. This ball club is ranked first in both scoring defense (74.2 points per contest) and defensive efficiency (94 points allowed per 100 possessions).
Washington’s defense is holding opponents to just 40.4 percent shooting from the field and 28.7 percent from beyond the arc. Both marks are tops in the WNBA.
The Spread
Washington comes into this matchup as a 5.5-point favorite. Here is a look at why I am picking Chicago to cover the spread.
Chicago is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five outings following an SU loss and 5-0 ATS in the last five games they have played on a Sunday.
The Sky are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record. The Mystics are 6-4 on the season.
In their last 11 games, Chicago holds a 7-2-2 mark against the spread.
Chicago has won seven of its last 10 road games against the spread.
Prediction: Chicago Sky (+5.5)
The Picks
OVER/UNDER
The projected over/under total for this game is 156 points. Here are some trends that suggest why taking the UNDER could be the smart choice.
The UNDER is a perfect 5-0 for Chicago when the team is playing on two days of rest.
- In the last 13 games against Eastern Conference opponents, the UNDER has a 9-4 record for the Sky.
The UNDER total has hit six times in Washington’s last seven games overall.
- In the Mystics’ last nine games played on a Sunday, the UNDER total has hit seven times.
- In Washington’s last 30 home games, the UNDER has a 21-8-1 record.
The UNDER holds a 19-7 record for the Mystics in their last 26 games against Eastern Conference teams.
- These two teams faced off against each other in late May. The O/U for that contest was 157.
- The teams combined for a total of 140 points.
Prediction: UNDER 156 points
PLAYER PROP BET
My key player to watch in this matchup is Chicago Sky guard Marina Mabrey. Following a three-year stint with the Dallas Wings, Mabrey is doing well in her first season with Chicago.
She is averaging career-highs in points (18.1) and rebounds (4.2). It is also worth mentioning she is shooting 39.6 percent from 3-point range, which is the second-highest conversion rate of her career.
There is no PPB info available at the time of this writing. But if the projected points total for Mabrey is 18 points or less, I would strongly suggest going with the OVER, as she has scored at least 20 points three times in her last four outings.
Prediction: Marina Mabrey OVER 18 points
James’s Picks: UNDER 156 points
Chicago Sky (+5.5)
PPB: Marina Mabrey OVER 18 points
