Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury Expert Pick – May 21st, 2023

CHICAGO SKY VS. PHOENIX MERCURY EXPERT PICK – MAY 21st, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. The WNBA season kicked off this past week and we have a good Sunday matchup on tap between the Chicago Sky and the Phoenix Mercury. 

Here is a look at which team has the edge and why. 

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The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 4:00 PM ET

Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

TV: ESPN

Public Money: Mercury, 61%

Public Bets: Mercury, 94%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 20, 2023

Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury Season Trends

The Chicago Sky won it all in 2021 but were unable to repeat as they were eliminated by the Connecticut Sun in the conference semifinals round last season. This disappointing exit led to a roster makeover during the offseason. But despite the absences of Candace Parker, Courtney Vandersloot, and Allie Quigley, the Sky kicked off their season with a 77-66 win over the Minnesota Lynx. 

Kahleah Copper spearheaded Chicago’s scoring attack with 20 points to go along with seven rebounds, five assists, and two steals. Not only did Chicago limit Minnesota to just three points in the second quarter, but the defense also held the opposition to just 33.3 percent shooting from the field, including 25 percent from beyond the arc. 

Meanwhile, the Mercury are coming off a disappointing 94-71 loss at the hands of the Los Angeles Sparks. To be objective Phoenix is missing several key players from its rotation including Skylar Duggins-Smith, Sophie Cunningham, and Megan Gustafson. On a positive note, Brittney Griner played in her first WNBA game in 579 days after being detained in Russia on drug charges. 

Despite having to forego the entire 2022 season, Griner did not miss a beat. In her long-awaited return, the veteran center scored 18 points, pulled down six rebounds, and blocked four shots. 

Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury Head-To-Head & Betting Trends

These two ball clubs played three times each, with the Sky coming out on top each time. The average margin of victory was 11.3 points per game.

The Picks

Over/Under

The projected O/U total for this contest is 159.5 points. In the three regular-season meetings last season, the teams exceeded that threshold only once. 

The Sky scored 77 points in their season opener, while Phoenix scored 71. That said, the teams have scored a total of 148 points between them. 

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight games for Chicago and 5-1 in the team’s last six road games. Additionally, the UNDER has hit four times in Chicago’s last five games against western conference opponents.

The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Phoenix’s last nine games that were played on a Sunday. The UNDER has prevailed in each of the last five games in which the Mercury were playing against teams with a winning record. Chicago is 1-0 on the season. 

Lastly, the Under is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between Chicago and Phoenix.

Prediction: UNDER 159.5 points

The Spread

The Mercury are favored to win this contest by 2.5 points. 

Chicago holds a 4-1 record ATS in its last five road games, but just 2-5 ATS in its last seven outings against Western Conference opponents. 

Phoenix is 2-6 ATS in the last eight contests in which they have played on a Sunday and 3-7 ATS in the team’s last 10 games overall. 

The Mercury are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with an overall winning record, and 1-5 ATS in their last six games against eastern conference opponents. 

Prediction: Chicago Sky (+2.5)

Player Prop Bet

No prop bet info was available at the time of this writing. My key player to watch from this matchup is Kahleah Copper. She scored in double figures in all three of the regular season matchups against the Mercury last season. And she did drop 20 in the season opener against Minnesota.

With that in mind, go with the Over if the projected points total is 15 or less. 

Prediction: Kahleah Copper OVER 15 points