Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Expert Pick – September 17, 2023

CHICAGO BEARS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 17, 2023 – Greetings football fans. Welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. My game of the week features the Chicago Bears (0-1) taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0).

Can the Bears bounce back after an uninspiring showing against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1? Will Baker Mayfield help guide the Bucs to another 2-0 start? Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

TV: FOX

Related: NFL Week One Fantasy Sleepers

The Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – In-Season & Betting Trends

Monster Of The Midway Hoping To Bounce Back From Dismal Performance In Week 1

We will start with the road team in the matchup. If you are a Bears fan, you could NOT have liked what you saw last week against the Packers. Justin Fields was supposedly poised for a breakout season. The offensive line was supposed to be improved following inconsistent play by this unit in 2022.

Neither of these scenarios played out in Week 1. Fields was under pressure most of the afternoon and was sacked four times. As a result, the Bears are now the proud owners of an 11-game losing streak dating back to last season. For obvious reasons, it would be unwise to overreact after one game. However, the Bears will need a much better effort across the board to snap that horrific losing streak.

Tampa Bay Seeking Third Straight 2-0 Start

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers upset the Minnesota Vikings by a 20-17 margin. While Tampa Bay is seeking its third consecutive 2-0 start, much of the discussion has been about how Baker Mayfield performed in his debut. Playing for his fourth team in three years, he did not get off to a great start, completing just three of his first 11 passing attempts. However, Mayfield eventually turned things around and finished the game completing 21 of his 34 passing attempts for 173 yards to go along with two touchdowns. Call it a hunch, but I get the feeling Mayfield is going to have another decent outing against a Bears’ defense that forgot to show up last week.

The Picks

The Spread

Tampa Bay opened as a one-point underdog. However, the current line now has them as a 2.5-point favorite. Neither team has been great against the spread lately. Here are a few trends that support that sentiment.

• Chicago is 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Not hard to believe considering the 11-game losing skid.
• The Bears are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road contests against the Buccaneers.
• Chicago is 2-10 in their last 12 outings against NFC teams.
• Tampa Bay is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.
• The Buccaneers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Regardless of how jaded I am on the Bears after Week 1; I am going to pick them to cover the spread in this one.

Prediction: Bears (+2.5)

Over/Under

The current projected O/U total is 41 points. While I do think this total is low, some of the trends say otherwise. Here is a look at what I mean.

• The UNDER total has hit for Chicago in four of its last six games against NFC South teams.
• In Chicago’s last six September contests, the UNDER total prevailed four times.
• The UNDER total is 13-6 for Tampa Bay in its last 19 outings.
• The UNDER has hit 11 times in the Buccaneers’ last 14 contests against NFC teams.

Despite all the trends saying otherwise, I am going with the OVER, although I do not believe these teams will exceed the projected scoring total by a wide margin.

Prediction: OVER 41 points

Player Prop Bet

For the second straight week, my key player to watch is Justin Fields. He currently has -115 odds to pass for more than 224.5 yards and -115 odds to pass for less than 224.5 yards.

Last week, Fields did not disappoint as he exceeded the 183.5 projected yards total. Win or lose, I am betting on him doing so again.

Prediction: Justin Fields OVER 224.5 yards