CHICAGO BEARS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 10, 2024

CHICAGO BEARS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 10, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the many games on Sunday’s slate features the Chicago Bears (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) hosting the New England Patriots (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, November 10, 2024 @ 1:00 PM ET

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

TV: FOX

Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Chicago Bears posted four wins in their first six outings. Since that hot start, though, they have dropped back-to-back games against the Washington Commanders and the Arizona Cardinals. Last week, Chicago’s offense struggled again in the 29-9 loss to Arizona. Caleb Williams finished 22 of 41 for 217 yards without a touchdown or an interception and was sacked six times. D’Andre Swift rushed for 51 yards on 16 carries, while rookie receiver Rome Odunze caught five passes for 104 yards.  The good news is the Bears are in a good spot to bounce back this week against an inferior opponent.

Meanwhile, after knocking off the Cincinnati Bengals in the season opener 16-10, the Patriots have dropped seven of their last eight games. This includes a 20-17 OT loss against the Tennessee Titans in Week 9. In that contest, rookie quarterback Drake Maye returned from concussion protocol, completing 29 of 41 passes for 206 yards, with one touchdown and a pair of picks. However, Maye led the team in rushing with 95 yards on eight carries for an average of 11.9 yards per attempt.

On the other side of the football, New England gave up 400 total yards, including 167 on the ground, and the Titans converted seven of their 16 third downs. The Patriots enter this contest against Chicago ranked 24th in yards allowed per game (361.4), 22nd in passing yards allowed per contest (224.6), and 26th in rushing yards allowed per outing (136.9). So, although the Bears have had difficulty moving the ball during their two-game skid, the Patriots’ defense, or lack thereof,  could be just what the doctor ordered.

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

The Spread

Despite dropping their last two contests, the Bears enter this contest as a six-point favorite (via OddsShark.com). Let’s see how both teams have fared against the spread.

• The Bears are 7-0 ATS in their last seven outings at Soldier Field.
• Chicago is 3-8 ATS in its previous 11 Week 10 games.
• The Pats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• In their previous seven matchups against NFC North opponents, New England is 5-2 against the spread.

Prediction: Chicago Bears (-6)

Over/Under

The projected scoring total for this matchup opened at 42 points but has since dipped to a modest 38.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Here are a few trends that support why taking the “over” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone OVER five times in the Bears’ last six home games.
• The OVER total is 6-1 in Chicago’s previous seven matchups against New England.
• The total has gone OVER four times in the Patriots’ last six outings.
• The OVER total boasts a 6-1 record in New England’s last seven matchups against Chicago.

Prediction: OVER 38.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Following two dismal showings against the Commanders and Cardinals, Caleb Williams is the key player to watch for the Bears. He currently has -115 odds of throwing for more than 205.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 205.5 yards (via DraftKings). Here’s a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected yards total.

• During the season, Williams has averaged 208.1 yards per outing.
• Williams has played against AFC teams four times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 214 yards per outing.
• In four home outings, Chicago’s rookie quarterback has averaged 195 yards per game.
• Over his last four starts, Williams has averaged 219.5 yards per contest, exceeding the yards total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Caleb Williams OVER 205.5 passing yards