Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Expert Pick – October 15, 2023

CHICAGO BEARS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS EXPERT PICK – OCTOBER 15, 2023 – Greetings football fans. Welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

To be honest, my featured game of the week will not break any viewership records by any means. The Chicago Bears (1-4) will host the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC North showdown.

Let us look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 1 PM ET

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

TV: FOX

The Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears – In-Season & Betting Trends

Chicago Bears Hoping To Win Two Straight For The First Time In Nearly Two Years

The Chicago Bears began their season 0-4, pushing their losing streak to 14 games. This dubious mark was the longest losing streak in franchise history.

However, the Bears finally broke into the win column with a 40-20 victory over the Washington Commanders in Week 5. For the second straight outing, Chicago jumped out to an early lead, only to see the opposition start having success in the second half.

Fortunately, the Bears made enough plays down the stretch to secure a much-needed win. Chicago’s offense was ranked 29^th going into Week 4. But thanks to accumulating 471 against the Broncos, and 451 yards against Washington, the Bears are now ranked 14^th in total offense.

The bad news for the Bears is Khalil Herbert will miss the next few weeks due to an ankle injury. He has compiled 179 yards on 28 attempts (6.3 YPC) in his last two outings. Additionally, the backups, Roschon Johnson (concussion) and Travis Homer (hamstring) have been ruled out as well.

Given that the ground game was starting to round into form, it will be interesting to see if the Bears can continue to have success without Herbert in the backfield.

Can The Vikings’ Offense Thrive Without Justin Jefferson?

Meanwhile, the last time we saw the Minnesota Vikings, they were on the wrong end of a 27-20 loss against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. With multiple opportunities to tie the score within the last few minutes, ineffective time management, and an injury to Justin Jefferson, prevented them from doing so.

Just like Chicago, the Vikings’ offense will be without an integral piece of their offense as Jefferson is on the shelf with a hamstring injury. This season, Jefferson leads the team with 36 catches for 567 yards to go along with three touchdowns. It will be the first time he has missed a game since the team drafted him back in 2020.

The Picks

The Spread

The Vikings opened as a consensus 4.5-point favorites. That line has moved to (-3). Although I am going in this direction with some hesitation, here is why I am going with the Bears to cover the spread.

• Minnesota is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 contests.
• The Vikings are 2-6-1 in their last nine matchups against NFC opponents.
• In its last five games against NFC North teams, Minnesota is 1-4 against the spread.

Prediction: Bears (+3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total opened at 48.5 total points. That line has moved to 43.5 points. This is probably because both teams will be without two of their most important players on offense. Here are some trends that suggest why leaning towards the OVER could be a smart play.

• The teams average a combined 45 points per contest, which is slightly higher than the projected total for this contest.
• The OVER total has prevailed four times in Minnesota’s last six games on the road.
• In Chicago’s last five games, the OVER total is a perfect 5-0.
• The OVER total has hit for Chicago in five of its last six October games.

Prediction: OVER 43.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in two of Chicago’s past three games was Justin Fields. Considering that I’ve been successful both times, I will continue to go with the hot hand. He currently has -115 odds of passing for more than 192.5 yards and -115 odds of passing for less than 192.5 yards.

Fields is coming off the best two games of his pro career. He threw for 335 yards against the Broncos and followed that up with 282 passing yards against the Commanders. Not only that, but he has accumulated eight touchdowns during that span as well.

This is an easy one for me. Based on what we have seen over the past two weeks, the Bears’ offense has been noticeably better. And for that reason, I am predicting that Fields will exceed the projected yards total for this contest.

Prediction: Justin Fields OVER 192.5 Yards