Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Expert Pick – November 27, 2023

CHICAGO BEARS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS EXPERT PICK – NOVEMBER 27, 2023 – Greetings football fans. Welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

My game of the week – if you can bring yourself to call it that – features the Chicago Bears (3-8) taking on the Minnesota Vikings (6-5) on Monday Night Football.

Let’s dive in to see which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Monday, November 27, 2023 at 8:15 PM ET

Where: US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

TV: ABC/ESPN

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Will The Bears Get Their FIRST Divisional Win Under Matt Eberflus?

The Bears come into this matchup having dropped three of their last four games. This includes a disheartening 31-26 loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 11. Despite a two-to-one ratio in time of possession along with a plus-three turnover ratio, Chicago failed to seal the deal despite having a 12-point lead with 4:15 left in regulation. That is a game you simply cannot lose, even if your record is 3-7.

Another noteworthy stat is the Bears have yet to win a game against a divisional opponent under Matt Eberflus. On the heels of the loss to the Lions, the Bears are now 0-12 in their last 12 games against NFC North teams. This includes an 0-5 record against Minnesota during that stretch. While I may still be smarting from last week’s epic meltdown, I strongly believe that trend will continue against Minnesota.

Can The Vikings’ Backup Quarterback Hand The Bears Another Loss?

Meanwhile, the Vikings posted a five-game winning streak following a 1-4 start. In last week’s matchup against the Denver Broncos, Minnesota saw its streak come to an end. Thanks, in large part to their defense limiting Denver to five field goals, the Vikings held a 20-15 lead in the fourth quarter. But just like the Bears, Minnesota let a winnable game slip through its fingers.

The one factor that could potentially tilt the outcome in the Bears’ favor is the guy under center for the Vikings – Joshua Dobbs. The Vikings acquired the journeyman quarterback after losing Kirk Cousins for the season.

In last week’s game against the Broncos, Dobbs was 20-of-32 for 221 yards with one touchdown and one interception. While that is a decent stat line, he fumbled three times, losing one while recovering the other two.

Following Denver’s go-ahead touchdown, Dobbs ended Minnesota’s final drive of the game with four consecutive incompletions. Additionally, I would be remiss if I did not mention that Dobbs has played for seven different franchises during his seven-year NFL career.

The Picks

The Spread

The Vikings opened as a four-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to three. Here are a few trends that suggest why choosing the home team to cover is the way to go.

• The Bears are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
• Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last five matchups against Minnesota.
• In their last 14 games against divisional opponents, the Bears are 2-12 against the spread.
• The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
• Minnesota is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five matchups against NFC opponents.
• The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six November games.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this game opened at 43.5 points. That line has moved slightly to 43 points. Here is a look at why going with the UNDER is the smart play.

• The UNDER total has hit in four of the Bears’ last six outings.
• In the Vikings’ last five home games, the UNDER has prevailed four times.
• The UNDER is 7-2 in Minnesota’s last nine contests.
• The most telling stat on this list is the UNDER has hit for Minnesota 13 times in its last 20 matchups against Chicago.

Prediction: UNDER 43 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch for the Bears is Justin Fields. Usually, I go with total passing yards. However, this week I am going in a slightly different direction, opting for the alternate passing yards total instead. Fields has -575 odds of finishing with 150-plus yards in this contest.

In seven starts this season, Fields has failed to reach this threshold only twice. And in his first game back following a four-week absence, he completed 16 of his 23 passing attempts for 169 yards and he tacked on 104 rushing yards on 18 carries. Furthermore, in three career games against Minnesota, Fields is averaging 183.7 yards per outing.

Given these trends, it is safe to say that Fields will finish with at least 150 passing yards against the Vikings.

Prediction: Justin Fields OVER 150+ passing yards