Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Chargers Expert Pick – October 29, 2023

CHICAGO BEARS vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS EXPERT PICK – October 29, 2023 – Greetings football fans. Welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

My game of the week features a pair of two-win teams: The Chicago Bears (2-5) and the Los Angeles Chargers (2-4).  Following disappointing starts to the season, both squads are hoping to turn things around in the second half of the 2023 campaign.

With that said, let us see which team has the edge going into this Week 8 matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, October 29, 2023 at 8:20 PM ET

Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

TV: NBC

The Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Chargers – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

What Will Do Tyson Bagent Do For An Encore?

The Bears dropped their first four games of the season. Not only that, the margin of defeat was 15 points per contest. Not the way an organization wants to start the season, given the moves that were made during the offseason.

Fortunately, Chicago has managed to turn things around over the past few weeks. They ended their 14-game losing skid with a 40-20 victory over the Washington Commanders in Week 5. Sure, they followed that up with a poor offensive showing against the Minnesota Vikings. But they also had a bounce-back performance against the Las Vegas Raiders, limiting them to 235 total yards en route to a 30-12 victory.

It is also worth mentioning that the victory came with an undrafted rookie quarterback under center – Tyson Bagent.  On the heels of an efficient performance, it would be wise for Luke Getsy to follow a similar game plan against the Chargers – intermediate pass plays combined with a dedicated ground game.

Justin Herbert Looking To Rebound Against Bears’ Passing Defense

On the other side of this matchup, the Chargers have not exactly lived up to their potential either. And this team has been just as inconsistent as the Bears. Los Angeles dropped its first two games of the season against the Miami Dolphins and the Tennessee Titans. They appeared to have righted the ships with a pair of wins over the Vikings and the Raiders.

As inconsistency goes, , though, the Chargers come into this matchup on a two-game skid. This includes a 31-17 loss against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. The one silver lining for Los Angeles is three of their four losses were by three points or less.

With an offense that is ranked eighth in total yards and passing yards per contest, Justin Herbert should be on track to have a big day against a Bears’ defense that is ranked 29^th against the pass.

The Picks

The Spread

At the time of this writing, the Chargers are an 8.5-point favorite in this matchup. Once again, I’m faced with the unenviable task of trying to pick between two teams who have not performed well against the spread.

• The Bears are just 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 outings.
• Chicago is 2-10-1 in the last 13 games they have played on Sunday.
• In their last seven contests, the Chargers are 2-5 against the spread.
• Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five October games.

Ironically, Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last eight decisions against the Chargers, while the Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six Sunday games they have played at home. With that in mind, it comes down to which trend you believe has a better shot of holding up.

I do not expect to be popular with the fan base for this decision, but I have to go with Los Angeles to cover.

Prediction: Chargers (-8.5)

Over/Under

Over/Under

The projected over/under total opened at 48.5. That line has moved to 46.5. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the UNDER is the smart play.

• In the last five games between these teams, the projected total has been eclipsed just once.
• The UNDER total has prevailed in four of the Chargers’ last six home games.
• In the Chargers’ last six games against NFC opponents, the UNDER has cashed in four times.

Prediction: UNDER 46.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Usually, I go with the quarterback as my key player to watch during the season. However, I am going in a different direction this week.

My key player to watch in this contest is D’Onta Foreman. He currently has -115 odds of rushing for more than 46.5 yards and -115 odds of rushing for less than 46.5 yards.

Foreman had seen limited action this season. But after a pedestrian 16-yard outing (on five carries) in the season-opener against the Green Bay Packers, Foreman has been an integral cog in Chicago’s ground game.

He had 15 carries for 65 yards in the 19-13 loss to the Vikings. In last week’s win over the Raiders, he tallied 89 yards on 16 carries. He also had two rushing touchdowns and a touchdown reception as well.

Given the success the Bears have had running the ball over the past few weeks, I’m going with the over for Foreman.

Prediction: D’Onta Foreman OVER 46.5 yards