Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs Expert Pick – September 24, 2023

CHICAGO BEARS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 24, 2023 – Greeting football fans and welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. My game of the week features the Chicago Bears (0-2) taking on the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (1-1).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 24, 2023 at 4:25 PM ET

Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.

TV: FOX

Related: NFL Week Three Fantasy Sleepers

The Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs – In-Season & Betting Trends

Bears Already In Hibernation Mode

The Chicago Bears come into this matchup on the heels of a disappointing 27-17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Although the offense produced a touchdown on the team’s first drive, Chicago was unable to sustain its early momentum, and the ending had an all too familiar feeling for Bears fans. As a result, the Bears have now lost 12 straight games, dating back to last season. They have also given up at least 25 points per contest during that stretch.

To make matters worse, the team will be missing another offensive lineman, Braxton Jones, due to a neck injury. The defensive coordinator, Alan Williams, resigned this week as well, citing health and family issues as the primary reasons for his decision. The Bears are an absolute train wreck and provide the perfect opportunity for a Kansas City squad that has had uneven performances so far this season.

Chiefs Will Take Advantage of Struggling Bears Squad

Meanwhile, after a season-opening 21-20 loss to the Detroit Lions, Kansas City bounced back with a 17-9 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars despite three early turnovers.

Although the Chiefs do not look like the same team that won it all a year ago, they should not have any issues running up the scoreboard against a defense that has given up the fourth-most yards per game (383.0) and the second-most points allowed per contest (32.5).

The Picks

The Spread

The Kansas City Chiefs opened as 11.5-point favorites. That line has moved to -12.5. While this large spread feels like a trap, here are a few trends that suggest that why betting the Chiefs to win and cover is a no-brainer.

• The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
• Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against the Chiefs.
• The Bears have failed to cover the spread nine of the 11 times they were double-digit underdogs.
• Kansas City is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 games they have played in Week 3.
• The Chiefs are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 home games that were played on a Sunday.

Prediction: Chiefs (-12.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under for this contest is 48 points. Here is a look at why going with the UNDER is the smart play.

• The UNDER total has hit for Chicago 10 times in its past 11 games against AFC West teams.
• In Kansas City’s past six games, the UNDER has prevailed five times.
• The UNDER total has prevailed in each of the past seven head-to-head matchups.
• The UNDER total has hit eight times for KC in its past nine home games.

Prediction: UNDER 48 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this matchup is Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He currently has -115 odds of passing for more than 284.5 yards and -115 odds of passing for less than 284.5 yards.

Mahomes is averaging 265.5 passing yards through the first two weeks of the season. However, he threw for 305 yards against Jacksonville and it would not be shocking if he duplicated that total against a Chicago team that cannot seem to do anything right.

Prediction: Patrick Mahomes OVER 284.5 Yards