CHICAGO BEARS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 13, 2024

CHICAGO BEARS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 13, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on Sunday’s slate features the Chicago Bears (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, October 13, 2024 @ 9:30 AM ET

Where: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England

TV: NFL  Network

Chicago Bears vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Chicago Bears vs. Jacksonville Jaguars — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Chicago Bears improved to 3-2 following a 36-10 thrashing of the Carolina Panthers in Week 5. Caleb Williams threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns while finishing with a passer rating of 126.2. D’Andre Swift had another solid outing with 73 yards on 21 carries and a touchdown. DJ Moore, who had his best outing of the season thus far, finished with five catches for 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Defensively, Chicago held Carolina to 172 passing yards, 3-for-12 on third down, generated four sacks, and forced three turnovers. Simply put, the Bears had a decent day on both sides of the ball.

Meanwhile, after an 0-4 start, the Jaguars finally got into the win column with a 37-34 win over the Indianapolis Colts. Trevor Lawrence completed 28 of 34 passes for 371 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception. Tank Bigsby spearheaded the ground game with 101 yards and two touchdowns, while Brian Thomas Jr. led the receiving corps with five receptions totaling 122 yards and a touchdown.

From a defensive standpoint, the Jaguars stunk it up, allowing the short-handed Colts to score 24 points in the final frame. Additionally, despite the absences of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis amassed 348 passing yards and was 7-for-14 on third down. With that in mind, the Bears should be able to make some plays against a defense ranked 31^st in total yards and 32nd in passing yards allowed per game.

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

The Spread

Despite Jacksonville dropping four of its first five contests, the Bears enter this contest as a slight one-point favorite (via OddsShark.com). Let’s see how both teams have fared against the spread.

• The Bears are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• Chicago has covered the spread in each of its previous six home contests.
• In their last five Week 6 outings, the Bears are 1-4 against the spread.
• The Jaguars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.
• Jacksonville has covered the spread only twice in its last seven outings against Chicago.
• In their previous seven Week 6 matchups, the Jaguars are 2-5 against the spread.

Prediction: Chicago Bears (-1)

Over/Under

The projected scoring total for this matchup is 45 points (via OddsShark.com). Here are a few trends that support why taking the “under” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone UNDER 10 times in the Bears’ last 15 games.
• The UNDER total is a perfect 5-0 in Chicago’s last five outings against AFC opponents.
• In the Bears’ previous eight matchups against AFC South teams, the UNDER total has prevailed six times.
• The total has gone UNDER six times in the Jaguars’ previous nine games.
• The UNDER total boasts a 4-1 record in Jacksonville’s last five outings against NFC opponents.

Prediction: UNDER 45 points

Player Prop Bet

Following his second 300-plus yards performance in three outings, Caleb Williams is the key player to watch for the Bears. He currently has -115 odds of throwing for more than 246.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 246.5 yards (via DraftKings). Here’s a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected yards total.

• During the season, Willams has averaged 218.2 yards per outing.
• Williams has played against AFC teams three times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 210 yards per outing.
• In three home outings, the rookie quarterback has averaged 184.7 yards per game.
• Over his last three starts, Williams has averaged 274.7 yards per contest, exceeding the yards total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Caleb Williams OVER 246.5 passing yards