Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Expert Pick – January 7, 2024

CHICAGO BEARS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS EXPERT PICK – JANUARY 7, 2024 – Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

My game of the week features the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) traveling to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS).

The Packers have beaten the Bears nine straight times, including a 38-20 win at Soldier Field in the season opener. Can the Bears play the role of spoiler and keep the Packers from qualifying for the postseason, or will Green Bay continue to dominate in what has become a one-sided rivalry?

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, January 7, 202 at 4:25 PM ET

Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

TV: CBS

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Will The Bears End Their Nine-Game Skid Against Packers?

The Bears come into this matchup having played their best stretch of the season. Chicago has won four of its last five games, and they have posted wins in each of their last two games. In the team’s 37-17 win over the Atlanta Falcons last week, Justin Fields finished 20-of-32 for 268 yards and a touchdown. He also added a rushing score as well.

Khalil Herbert tallied 126 yards on 18 carries and a touchdown. DJ Moore caught nine passes for 159 yards and a touchdown. Let us not forget that the defense forced four turnovers as well, giving this unit a total of 18 forced turnovers over the past six weeks. To put this stat into proper perspective, Chicago produced just nine turnovers through its first 10 games.

Last season, the Packers needed a win against the Detroit Lions to get into the postseason. That did not come to fruition as the Lions won that game 20-16.

If the Bears play like the team we have seen over the past few weeks, not only will they keep Green Bay out of the playoffs, but they can also snap a nine-game losing skid against a division rival.

Can The Packers Get Their 10^th Straight Win Over Chicago?

Packers Offensive Stats                                 PackersDefensive Stats
Scoring: 22.9 PPG – 11th                                    Points Allowed: 21.3 PPG – 14th
Total Yards: 354.7 YPG – 13th                          Yards Allowed: 344 YPG — 21st
Passing Yards: 243.4 YPG – 17th                      Passing Yards Allowed: 212.4 YPG — 11th
Rushing: 111.3 YPG – 15th                                 Rushing Yards Allowed: 131.6 YPG – 28th

Meanwhile, the Packers have won three of their last five decisions. This includes a 33-10 win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17. In that contest, Jordan Love went 24-for-33 for 256 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Love also had a rushing touchdown as well.

“He is playing at an incredibly high level. I’m super happy for him, because he’s put in a ton of work to get to this point,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said, via ESPN. “I really think the sky is the limit for us. He is just showing a glimpse of what he can ultimately be.”

Aaron Jones led the Packers’ ground game with 120 yards on 20 carries. Bo Melton caught six passes for 105 yards and a score, while Jayden Reed contributed six catches totaling 89 yards and two touchdowns.

With Love coming off one of his better performances of the year, Chicago could have its hands full in this matchup.

Now that we have set the table for this NFC-North showdown, here is a look at a few betting trends for both teams.

The Picks

The Spread

The Packers opened as a consensus two-point favorite. At the time of the writing, the line has moved up to three points for the home team. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the Bears to cover is the safe bet.

• The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
• Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last five matchups against NFC opponents.
• The Packers are 2-4 ATS in their last six January games.
• Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in the last five games as the favorite.

Prediction: Chicago Bears (+3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 44 points. The line has moved slightly to 45 points. Here is a glimpse at how both teams have fared against the over/under this season.

• The UNDER total has hit six times in the Bears’ last nine games.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in Chicago’s last five January outings.
• The OVER total is 6-0 in the Packers’ last six outings.
• The OVER total prevailed five times in the last seven matchups between these ball clubs.
• In Green Bay’s last five outings, the OVER total won each time.
• In the Packers’ last five games against NFC North teams, the OVER total cashed in four times.

Prediction: OVER 45 points

Player Prop Bets

My key player to watch for the road team is Justin Fields. He currently has -115 odds of throwing for more than 199.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 199.5 yards. Here is a look at how his season numbers stack up against the projected passing yards total for this matchup.

• This season, Fields has accumulated 2,414 yards over 12 outings. That averages out to 201.2 yards per outing.
• In six road contests, Fields is averaging 190.1 YPG.
• During December – a sample size of four games – Fields’s yards-per-game average was 206.8.
• Fields has played against NFC teams nine times this season. He is averaging 201.6 YPG in those contests.
• In five matchups against NFC-North opponents, Fields is averaging 176.6 YPG.
• Fields has exceeded the yards total for this matchup seven times in his 12 starts.

Prediction: Justin Fields OVER 199.5 passing yards

My key player to watch for the home team is Jordan Love. He currently has -115 odds of totaling more than 254.5 passing yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 254.5 yards. Here is a glance at how Love’s numbers compare to the projected passing yards total for this matchup.

• During the season, Love has amassed 3,843 yards in 16 outings. That averages out to 240.2 yards per outing.
• In seven road games, Love is averaging 260.1 yards per contest.
• Love has played against NFC-North opponents five times this season. He is averaging 248.8 YPG in those matchups.
• In 11 matchups against NFC teams, Love is averaging 236.6 YPG.

Prediction: Jordan Love UNDER 254.5 receiving yards