CHICAGO BEARS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 17, 2024

CHICAGO BEARS VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 17, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the many games on Sunday’s slate features the Chicago Bears (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) hosting the Green Bay Packers (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, November 17, 2024 @ 1:00 PM ET

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

TV: FOX

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

Following a 4-2 start through their first six outings, the Bears have suffered three straight losses against the Washington Commanders, Arizona Cardinals, and the New England Patriots. The 19-3 setback against the Pats was a low point because they were one of the worst teams in the league heading into that matchup. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the offense was a train wreck, which is putting it nicely. Caleb Williams completed just 16 of 30 pass attempts for 120 yards.

The good news is he didn’t have any interceptions. The bad news is this was his third straight outing in which he failed to throw a touchdown. The rookie quarterback was sacked nine times against a defense that had recorded just 16 coming into that contest. Additionally, Williams has been sacked 18 times over the last three games, and Chicago has failed to score a touchdown in its previous 23 possessions. This statistic contributed to the team parting ways with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron midway through the season. With multiple starters along the offensive line dealing with injuries, the Bears’ struggles against an opponent that has dominated them over the past several seasons are likely to continue.

Packers Look To Continue Their Dominance Against Chicago

On the other side of this matchup, the Packers have won four of their last five games but saw their four-game winning streak snapped with a 24-14 home loss against the Detroit Lions last week. Jordan Love finished 23 of 39 for 273 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. Jayden Reed caught five passes totaling 113 yards, while Josh Jacobs tallied 95 rushing yards on 13 attempts. Green Bay outgained Detroit 411-261 but produced one touchdown and two field goals in four trips inside the red zone. The Bears’ defense has done enough to keep them in games, but they may have their hands full against an opponent ranked in the top 10 in scoring (25.6 PPG) and passing yards per game (235.8).

Furthermore, the Packers have the third-best ground game in the NFL, churning out 154.8 yards per contest. Green Bay has defeated Chicago in each of the previous 10 matchups between these franchises. Based on what we’ve seen over the past few weeks, look for that trend to come to fruition once again.

Now that we have set the stage for this NFC North showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

Bears vs. Packers Spread Analysis

On the heels of their third straight loss, the Bears enter this contest as a six-point underdog (via OddsShark.com). Honestly, it is somewhat surprising that the spread isn’t larger than that. Let’s see how both teams have fared against the spread.

• The Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against NFC opponents.
• Unfortunately, Chicago has failed to cover the spread in their previous five matchups against Green Bay.
• Meanwhile, the Packers are 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.
• However, Green Bay is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 matchups against the Bears.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers (-6)

Bears vs. Packers Over/Under Prediction

The projected scoring total for this matchup opened at 41 points (via OddsShark.com). Let’s see how both sides have performed against the over/under this season.

• The total has gone UNDER seven times in the Bears’ last 10 games.
• The UNDER total is 5-1 in Chicago’s previous six November outings.
• The total has gone OVER nine times in the Packers’ last 11 road contests.
• The OVER total boasts an 8-3 record in Green Bay’s previous 11 “road” matchups against Chicago.

These two squads are averaging a combined total of 45 points per game. But given how Chicago’s offense has struggled over the last three games (nine points per contest), the best play here is to go with the “under.”

Prediction: UNDER 41 points

Player Prop Bet

If the Bears hope to be competitive against their division rivals, they must run the ball effectively. With that in mind, D’Andre Swift is the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -110 odds of rushing for more than 66.5 yards and -110 odds of finishing with less than 65.5 yards (via Bet365). Here’s how his numbers stack up against the projected yards total.

• During the season, Swift has averaged 62.7 yards per outing.
• In six career matchups against Green Bay, Swift has rushed for 138 yards on 35 carries and two touchdowns.
• Swift has played against NFC teams four times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 86.5 yards per outing.
• In five home outings, Swift has averaged 69.2 yards per game.
• Over his last five starts, Swift has averaged 80.6 yards per contest, exceeding the yards total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: D’Andre Swift OVER 66.5 rushing yards