Chicago Bears vs. Denver Broncos Expert Pick – October 1, 2023

CHICAGO BEARS VS. DENVER BRONCOS EXPERT PICK – OCTOBER 1, 2023 – Happy Sunday football fans. Welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Unfortunately, my game of the week features a pair of winless teams.

The Denver Broncos (0-3) are traveling to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (0-3). There is not a whole lot to like about from either side of this matchup. But at least one of these squads will notch their first win on the season, barring a tie, of course.

So, without further delay, here is a look at which team has the edge and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, October 1, 2023 at 1 PM ET

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago

TV: CBS

Related: NFL Week Four Fantasy Sleepers

The Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears – In-Season & Betting Trends

Broncos Are Bad — And That’s Being Kind

When we last saw the Broncos, they were getting their butts kicked by the Miami Dolphins, and that is not hyperbole. Miami scored 70 points against Denver in Week 3. This was the most points scored in an NFL game since 1966.

The Broncos also gave up 726 yards of offense. To bring home the point even further, Miami scored more points in this game than the Broncos have scored all season (69).

Although the Broncos are ranked 15th in total offense (340.7 YPG), they have certainly have their struggles from a defensive perspective.

• Passing yards allowed (280.7 YPG) – 29th
• Rushing yards allowed (177.7 YPG) – 32nd
• Total yards allowed (458.3 YPG) – 32nd

Based on the numbers, it is not surprising why the Broncos find themselves winless through three games. Last week, I predicted that the Kansas City Chiefs would capitalize on Chicago’s shortcomings, and they did. I have a not-so-sneaky feeling that the same will hold true this week as well.

Bears Could Be Just What The Doctor Ordered For The Broncos

Chicago opened its season with a 38-20 loss to the Green Bay Packers. The team followed that up with a 27-17 defeat at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
And in the Bears’ Week 3 matchup against the Chiefs — if you can call it that — they fell behind 41-0 before turning a couple of turnovers into 10 points in garbage time. While going against an opponent who has its share of deficiencies could be the recipe for a win, Chicago has its own set of problems on BOTH sides of the football.

Let’s start with the offense. The Bears are averaging 250 yards per outing. Only three teams are worse than Chicago in this category – The Cincinnati Bengals (244.3 YPG), the Tennessee Titans (240.0 YPG), and the New York Jets (225.0 YPG).

And on the other side of the ball, it is more of the same.

• Passing yards allowed (285.7 YPG) – 30th
• Rushing yards allowed (121.7 YPG) – 20th
• Total yards allowed (407.3 YPG) – 29th

So, while the Bears are somewhat better on defense, it is not by a wide margin. In a battle between two struggling teams, you get the feeling that it will not take too many points for either side to come out on top.

The Picks

The Spread

The Broncos opened as a consensus two-point favorite. That line has moved to (-3.5). Despite the low point spread, here is why I am torn in deciding which team will cover.

• Denver is 1-5 ATS in its spast six games overall.
• The Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games against Chicago. 
• Denver is 2-4 ATS in its past six matchups against NFC teams. 
• Chicago is winless against the spread in its past six games overall.
• The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their past eight October games. 
• Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its past five Sunday games. 
• The Bears have not covered the spread in their past eight matchups against teams with a losing record.

Although both teams have not performed well against the spread, I am going with the road team to cover.

Prediction: Broncos (-3.5)

Over/Under

The over/under total opened at 44 points. That line has moved to 46.5 points. Here is why I am emphatically going with the OVER here.

• The Bears and Broncos are ranked 31st and 32nd in points allowed per game. The Bears are giving up 35.3 points per contest, while the Broncos are allowing 40.7 points per outing. 
• The total has hit for Denver in seven of its last eight games overall. 
• In Denver’s last five games against the NFC North teams, the OVER total is 4-1. 
• The OVER has prevailed 11 times in Chicago’s last 14 games.
• The OVER is 6-0 in the Bears’ last six matchups against AFC teams.

Prediction: OVER 46.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Bears’ wide receiver DJ Moore. Chicago acquired Moore from the Carolina Panthers in exchange for its 2023 first-round pick. He currently has -115 odds of totaling more than 46.5 yards and -115 odds of totaling less than 46.5 yards.

Moore amassed a combined 66 receiving yards against the Packers and Chiefs. The silver lining here is he notched six receptions for 104 yards in Week 2 against the Buccaneers. 

Given the fact that Denver is ranked 29th in passing yards, the stars are aligned for Moore to have a solid outing. 

Prediction: DJ Moore OVER 46.5 Yards