Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns Expert Pick – December 17, 2023

CHICAGO BEARS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 17, 2023 – Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of my games of the week features the Chicago Bears (5-8) taking on the Cleveland Browns (8-5). Can the Bears continue their recent success against the top defense in the league? Will veteran quarterback, Joe Flacco, turn in another solid performance this week?

Without further delay, here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this Week 14 matchup.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, December 17, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH

TV: FOX

Chicago Bears vs.  Cleveland Browns Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Chicago Bears Extend Their Winning Streak To Three Games?

The Bears enter this matchup with consecutive victories for the first time in two years. This includes a 28-13 win over the Detroit Lions. In their previous matchup against Detroit a few weeks ago, the Bears failed to seal the deal despite leading 26-14 with 4:15 left in regulation. This time, there was no late-game collapse, as Chicago turned in one of its best performances of the season against the first-place team in the division.

Justin Fields finished 19-of-33 for 223 yards and one touchdown. He also tallied 58 yards on 12 carries and had a rushing touchdown as well. Fields is just the second Bears quarterback to rush for over 2,000 yards, and just the third quarterback in league history to reach 2,000 rushing yards in his third season. Lamar Jackson ran for a total of 2,906 rushing yards in his first three seasons, while Cam Newton had 2,032 in his first three seasons.

D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet combined for 11 catches totaling 132 yards. Chicago’s defense was solid, coming away with four sacks and two interceptions. It is also worth noting that this unit did not allow any points in the second half. The standout player for the defense was Jaquan Brisker, who led this unit with a whopping 17 tackles.

On the heels of one of their best performances of the season, the Bears are hoping to duplicate this effort against the NFL’s top defense.

Can Joe Flacco Air It Out Against An Improving Bears’ Defense?

Browns Offensive Stats                                         Browns Defensive Stats
Scoring: 22.2 PPG – 12th                                            Scoring: 20.9 PPG – 14th
Total Yards: 345.1 YPG – 18th                                   Yards Allowed: 263 YPG – 1st
Passing: 214.1 YPG – 24th                                          Passing Yards Allowed: 159.7 YPG — 1st
Rushing: 137.7 YPG – 7th                                           Rushing Yards Allowed: 103.3 YPG – 11th

On the other side of this matchup, the Cleveland Browns have dropped two of their last three games. But thanks to a solid outing by Joe Flacco, the Browns did manage to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-27 last week.

Flacco was 26 of 45 for 311 yards, with three touchdowns and one interception. In his two starts for the Browns, he has amassed 565 yards, five touchdowns, and two picks. With that in mind, it is not much of a surprise that he will be the Browns’ starting quarterback for the remainder of the season.

Next up, a look at some betting trends for both sides.

The Picks

The Spread

The Browns opened as a consensus three-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has not changed. Here is a look at why taking the road team to cover could be the smart play here.

• The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
• In its last six games against Cleveland, Chicago is 4-2 against the spread.
• The Bears are an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six games as the underdog.

Prediction: Chicago Bears (+3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total opened at 37 points. The line has recently moved to 38.5 points. Here is a glimpse of why going with the “under” is the best bet in this matchup.

• The UNDER total has hit five times in the Bears’ last six outings.
• In Chicago’s last five matchups against AFC North teams, the total has gone UNDER four times.
• The UNDER total has prevailed four times in the Browns’ last five games against Chicago.
• In Cleveland’s last 16 games against NFC opponents, the UNDER total has hit 11 times.
• The total has gone UNDER for the Browns in each of their last five matchups against NFC-North teams.

Prediction: UNDER 38.5 points

Player Prop Bets

My key player to watch for the Bears is Justin Fields. He currently has the same -115 odds of throwing for more than 182.5 yards and less than 182.5 yards.

From a historical perspective, there is not much to go on as Fields has played against Cleveland just one time in his NFL career. That game took place back in September 2021. He completed just six of his 20 passes for 68 yards and was sacked NINE times. The Bears lost that game 26-6.

On the season, Fields has thrown for 1,810 yards across nine outings. That is an average of 201.1 yards per contest. Fields has played seven times on Sunday this season. In those seven outings, he is averaging 187.3 yards per game. Lastly, Fields has eclipsed the projected yards total for his matchup seven times this season overall, and twice in his last three games.

Prediction: Justin Fields OVER 182.5 passing yards

My key player to watch for the Browns is Joe Flacco. He currently has -115 odds of throwing for more than 229.5 yards and -115 odds of throwing for less than 229.5 yards. Given the fact that Flacco was out of the league until Cleveland signed him to its practice squad in late November, he does not have the same body of work as Fields, but here is what we do know.

In four career games against Chicago, Flacco has averaged 217 yards per outing, with a total of six touchdowns against five interceptions. As mentioned, Flacco has 565 passing yards in his two starts, which averages out to 282.5 yards per game.

Flacco has played one road game and one home game this season. He played better in the home game against Jacksonville (26 of 45 for 311 yards, three scores, and one pick) than he did in the road game against the Los Angeles Rams (23 of 44 for 254 yards, two scores and one INT).

Based on the small sample size, taking the “over” on Flacco could be a safe bet against a Bears’ defense that is ranked 23^rd against the pass.

Prediction: Joe Flacco OVER 229.5 yards