CHICAGO BEARS AT WASHINGTON COMMANDERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 27, 2024

CHICAGO BEARS AT WASHINGTON COMMANDERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 27, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on Sunday’s slate features the Chicago Bears (4-2 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) visiting the Washington Commanders (5-2 SU, 5-1-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, October 27, 2024 @ 4:25 PM ET

Where: Commanders Field,  Landover, MD

TV: CBS

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Commanders-Bears matchup features a pair of feel-good stories in the NFC. Washington sits atop the NFC East with a 5-2 record following a 40-7 dismantling of the lowly Carolina Panthers in Week 7. On the flip side, the Bears have won four of their first six games of the season and enter this matchup riding a three-game winning streak following a 35-16 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6.

With rookie Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, under center, the Commanders are formidable from an offensive standpoint. They own the league’s top-scoring average at 31.1 points per game. They are ranked fourth in yards per game and third in rushing yards per outing.

While Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the year’s draft, has already given Chicago’s fanbase plenty to cheer for after a slow start, the defense remains the calling card for this franchise. The Bears allow just 16.8 points per game — the fourth-best scoring defense in the NFL. This unit ranks fifth in total yards (292), seventh in passing yards (180), and 11^th in rushing yards allowed (112). Additionally, Chicago’s defense ranks third in takeaways and turnover differential. Simply put, this unit is a force to be reckoned with.

Can Williams (seven TDs and one pick in his last three outings) continue to thrive, or will the Commanders’ middle-of-the-pack defense rise to the occasion? Now that we have set the stage for NFC showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

The Spread

With Jayden Daniels dealing with a rib injury, the Bears are currently a three-point favorite (via OddsShark.com). Let’s see how both teams have fared against the spread.

• The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games.
• Washington is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five Sunday outings.
• In the last 10 instances in which they were listed as the favorite, the Commanders are 3-7 against the spread.
• The Bears are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 outings.
• Chicago is just 4-12 ATS in its previous 16 matchups against Washington.
• The Bears have covered the spread seven times in their last eight games against NFC opponents.

Prediction: Washington Commanders (+3)

Over/Under

The projected scoring total for this matchup is 43 points (via OddsShark.com). Here are a few trends that support why taking the “over” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Commanders’ last five games.
• The OVER total has a 65 percent success rate (13-7) in Washington’s previous 20 matchups against NFC North opponents.
• The total has gone OVER five times in the Bears’ previous six contests against Washington.
• In Chicago’s last seven “road” matchups in this series, the OVER total has cashed in six times.

Prediction: OVER 43 points

Player Prop Bet

With Daniels expected to be a game-time decision, the key player to watch for the home team is wide receiver Terry McLaurin. He currently has -115 odds of exceeding 53.5 reception yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 53.5 yards (via DraftKings). Here’s a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected yards total.

• During the season, McLaurin averages 64.9 yards per game.
• In three career matchups against Chicago, McLaurin has averaged 53.3 yards per outing.
• The Commanders have played three home games this season. In those contests, McLaurin is averaging 77.3 yards per outing.
• Across his last three starts, McLaurin averages 87.7 yards per contest, exceeding the projected yards total twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Terry McLaurin OVER 53.5 receiving yards