Chelsea vs. Manchester City Expert Pick and Prediction – August 18, 2024

CHELSEA VS. MANCHESTER CITY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 18, 2024 — Welcome to your baptism by fire, Enzo Maresca. Pep Guardiola’s one-time assistant now gets the chance to take him on as an equal after joining the efforts at Stamford Bridge for the new season. Last year, Maresca did a fine job in guiding Leicester City back to the Premier League at the first time of asking. The Foxes rolled to the title in the Championship, never dropping below third place.

It won’t be nearly as easy in west London. Now he’s got to try to beat Guardiola and the rest of the Prem’s best, and he has to do it with the weight of expectations. Leicester’s not an easy job, but it’s a job with reasonable expectations. Not so with Chelsea, where the expectation is Champions League every season and the occasional title push. And that was never going to happen last year, not with Mauricio Pochettino having to bring in young players and give them time to mesh.

Related: What Hiring Mauricio Pochettino Means for the United States

His efforts worked eventually, but now Chelsea’s starting over again with new faces. Manchester City is not. The Sky Blues were the first to win four straight Premier League titles, and they look capable of holding off Arsenal again to make it five in a row. Chelsea is going to get this right eventually, but this team is by no means ready to take on the best of the Prem. It could be a long afternoon for the home side.

Kickoff

Teams: Chelsea vs. Manchester City

When: Sunday, August 18 at 11:30 p.m. EST

Where: Stamford Bridge, London

TV: NBC

Spread: Chelsea +1/Manchester City -1

Moneyline: Chelsea +280/Manchester City -115/Draw +295

Totals: Over 3.5 (+125)/Under 3.5 (-160)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 17th, 2024 

Scouting Chelsea

The preseason showed just how far Chelsea has to go. Granted, Cole Palmer didn’t play in the match with City, but Chelsea wants to prove it’s more than a one-man show after Palmer scored 22 goals and a new contract that could keep him at Stamford Bridge until 2033. Maresca imported Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall from his 2023 Leicester squad, which should help the goals keep coming.

Related: Angell’s Sports Analysis for August 18

But Chelsea was not good with the ball against City, and the Sky Blues made them pay by hitting them for four. The Blues have to be more disciplined at the back, which hasn’t been their strength. Although Chelsea hasn’t lost at Stamford Bridge since Feb. 4, five of the past eight visitors to west London game out with at least a goal to their name.

Scouting Manchester City

Pep Guardiola clearly believes in fast starts. The City boss is 7-1-0 on opening day, and six of his seven victories have come by at least two goals. Last year was a rare situation where City had to play from behind, but that spoke to the quality of Arsenal. This year, City are well aware of the challenge of the North Londoners and should come out firing.

Erling Haaland remains the best player to never appear on the world stage by a mile, as the Norwegian has never played in a World Cup or European Championship. He continues to put up goals galore for City, having scored 63 goals in 66 matches for the Sky Blues. He struck twice in the friendly, and Chelsea have to track him at all times.

Best Bets

Manchester City -1.5 (+205): This is value. Chelsea are trying to learn a new system and figure out which pieces go where, and they’re doing it on the fly. Manchester City are four-time defending champs and have won by at least two goals in six of seven openers. Giving the second goal and getting more than +200 represents incredible value in this spot.

Manchester City Win to Nil (+250): This goes against the grain, as Chelsea haven’t been shut out in 13 consecutive Premier League matches at Stamford Bridge. But Manchester City is 7-0-2 in its past nine competitive meetings with Chelsea, and all seven wins saw Chelsea fail to score. With the Blues still figuring things out, another City clean sheet looks likely.

Manchester City 2-0 (+800): Guardiola isn’t going to want to embarrass his former assistant. He’s already gone to bat for Maresca, asking the Chelsea board to give him time to get things right. Patience is historically in short supply in west London, and a rout would put Maresca in a deep hole before he even gets a chance. Expect City to get a comfortable win, but one that allows Chelsea to save some face.