Sixers vs. Celtics Game 4 Preview and Picks – May 7, 2023

CELTICS VS SIXERS GAME 4 PREVIEW AND PICKS – MAY 7, 2023 – Welcome back to our NBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins. I hope that you are having a great weekend thus far.

The game that we will look at today is the Boston Celtics taking on the Philadelphia 76ers. The Celtics hold a 2-1 lead and hope to take a commanding 3-1 lead heading home for Game 5. So, without further ado, here is a look at this matchup and which team has the edge heading into Game 4. 

The Odds

Tipoff 

When: Saturday, May 7, 2023 at 3:30 PM ET

Where: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Celtics 67%

Public Money: Celtics 58%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 7, 2023

How We Got Here

Despite the absence of Joel Embiid in the series opener, the Sixers stole Game 1 on the road 119-115. Without the team’s top player in the lineup, someone needed to step and James Harden was up to the task. 

He scored a game-high 45 points on 17-for-30 shooting and 7-for-14 from beyond the arc. Tyrese Maxey chipped in with 26 points to go along with four steals. 

Apparently, the Sixers’ victory in Game 1 turned out to be fool’s gold. Although Embiid returned to the lineup for Game 2, the Celtics steamrolled the Sixers to the tune of 121-87. Not only that but the Celtics’ defense limited Philadelphia to 39.2 percent shooting, including a pedestrian 6-for-30 from the 3-point line.

The final score was a little bit more competitive in Game 3. But unfortunately for the Sixers, they found themselves on the wrong end of a 114-102 loss. 

Embiid received the league’s MVP award before the game, but there was little else for the home crowd to cheer about. Embiid did all he could, finishing with a stat line that included 30 points, 13 rebounds, three assists, and four blocks. But he did not have much support. 

Maxey scored 13 points but shot just 4-for-13 from the floor. Harden scored 16 points on 3-for-16 shooting. And over the last two games, Harden has converted only five of 28 shot attempts. Unsurprisingly, this marks the worst two-game stretch of his career in which he has attempted at least 20 shots.  

The Celtics don’t have an answer for Embiid, but if they continue to limit the production of the other Sixers’ players, this series has all the makings of a gentleman’s sweep. 

Here are my betting picks for this contest, including my confidence meter for each pick on a scale of one to five stars. 

The Picks

Over/Under

The projected O/U total opened at 215 for this contest. That line has slightly moved to 214.5, with the OVER currently attracting 58 percent of the cash and 59 percent of the tickets (subject to change). 

The OVER is 6-1 in Boston’s last seven games overall and 6-1 in the last seven times in which Boston scored 100 or points in its previous outing. The Celtics scored 114 in their Game 3 victory.

The Celtics have hit the OVER four of their previous five instances in which they allowed 100 or more points in the previous game. The Sixers scored 102 points in Game 3. 

The OVER holds a 4-1 mark in Boston’s last five road contests against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Philadelphia finished with a 29-12 record in the regular season – a winning percentage of .707.

The OVER is 5-2 in Philly’s last 7 games, and 6-2 in its last eight games in which the team gave up 100 or more points in its previous outing. Philly surrendered 114 points in Game 3.

The Sixers have hit on the OVER seven times in the previous nine instances in which they lost by a double-digit margin at Wells Fargo Arena. Boston won by a 12-point margin in Game 3. 

Prediction: Over 214.5 points ★★★

The Spread

The Celtics opened as a consensus three-point favorite. That line has moved to (-2.5).

Boston is 10-3 in its last 13 games overall and 10-3 against the spread when allowing more than 100 points in its previous outing. The Sixers scored 102 points in Game 2.

The Celtics have a 9-3-mark ATS in the last 12 instances in which they have scored 100 or more or more points in their previous game. They scored 114 points in Game 3.

In its last 54 road games, Boston is 37-16-1 ATS against opponents with a home winning record of greater than .600. The Sixers posted a home winning percentage of .707 during the regular season.

The Celtics are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games against teams with an overall winning percentage of .600 or better. The Sixers were 54-28 during the regular season (.659 winning percentage).

In their last 53 road games, the Celtics are 35-17-1 ATS when the opposing team has a winning home record. The Sixers were 29-12 at home. 

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-2.5) ★★★★★

Player Prop Bet

My player to watch in Game 4 is Boston Celtics guard Jayson Tatum. He currently has -120 odds to score more than 27.5 points and -110 odds to score less than the projected total. 

Except for Game 2, when he was limited by early foul trouble, Tatum has played well in this series thus far. He scored 39 points in the series opener, knocking 14 of his 25 attempts. He also tallied 11 rebounds and five dimes. 

In the Celtics’ Game 3 win, JT scored 27 points to go along with 10 rebounds and five assists. 

Barring a repeat of Game 2, I expect Tatum to exceed the 27.5-point threshold. 

Prediction: Jayson Tatum OVER 27.5 points  ★★★★

Read more playoff coverage here!