Celtics vs. Heat Game 6 Pick and Prediction

CELTICS VS. HEAT GAME 6 PICK AND PREDICTION – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Our Saturday game features the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics taking on the No. 8 seed Miami Heat. 

One or two scenarios will play out. Either the Heat will finally eliminate the Celtics, or the Celtics will put themselves in a position to do what no team in NBA history has accomplished – coming back from a 0-3 deficit. 

Here’s a look at which team has the edge and why heading into Game 6.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Saturday, May 27, 2023 at 8:30 PM ET

Where: FTX Arena, Miami, FL

TV: TNT

Public Money: Heat, 55%

Public Bets: Celtics, 56%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 27, 2023

How We Got Here

Despite an up-and-down regular season, Miami has had a remarkable playoff run, winning eight of their first 11 playoff games.

The solid level of play continued into the eastern conference finals matchup against Boston, as Miami took each of the first three games, including a resounding 128-102 victory in Game 3. And the final score was not indicative of how dominant the Heat were in that contest. 

The Heat had all the momentum through the first three games of this series. And then the narrative suddenly shifted. 

With their postseason run on life support, the Celtics responded in Game 4 with a 116-99 victory. Not only did Boston shoot 51.2 percent from the field, but they also knocked down 18 of their 45 attempts from beyond the arc, which equates to a 40 percent conversion rate. This stat is significant as it was the Celtics’ best effort from distance at that point in time. 

With renewed confidence, the Celtics returned to TD Garden for Game 5. The caveat here is that the Celtics have not been a dominant team at home. The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Celtics twice in the conference semifinals and Miami won the first two games of this series at TD Garden. 

Despite this glaring trend, the Celtics turned in another solid performance en route to a 110-97 victory. For the second straight outing, Boston shot over 50 percent from the field (40-for-79) and they converted 41 percent of their attempts from long range (16-for-39). 

While the venue will shift back to South Beach for Game 6, it will be a difficult task closing out a Celtics squad that now believes that it can win this series. 

Here are my betting picks for this crucial Game 6, along with my confidence meter for each of them on a scale of one to five stars. 

The Picks

Over/Under

The O/U total opened at 213.5 points. That line has moved to 210 points. 

Through the first five games, the teams have failed to score less than 210 points only once. And here are a few other trends that suggest why taking the OVER is a wise move. 

Boston has hit the OVER in six of its last eight games following an against-the-spread win. Boston won Game 5 110-97.

The OVER total has prevailed 12 times in Boston’s last 16 games that were played on one day of rest, which will be the case when these two teams clash on Saturday night. 

The OVER has an 11-5 record for the Celtics in their previous 16 conference finals games. 

Miami has hit on the OVER 13 of its last 18 times when the opposition scored more than 100 points in its previous outing. The Celtics scored 110 points in Game 5. 

The OVER holds a 13-3 mark for the Heat when they are playing on one day of rest. 

In Miami’s last 14 home games, the OVER total has prevailed 11 times. 

Lastly, the Celtics are averaging 114 points per game in two road contests in this series. The Heat are averaging 113.5 points per contest at home in this series. 

Prediction: OVER 210 points (★★★★★)

The Spread

Despite the fact they are facing elimination for the third straight game, the Celtics opened as a consensus three-point favorite. As of right now, that line has not moved.

While Miami is just 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games following an SU loss of more than 10 points, here are a few noteworthy trends as to why I am picking the Heat to cover in this one. 

Miami has won 10 of its last 14 games against the spread.

The Heat boast a 7-2 ATS record in their last nine home games. 

Miami is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played on one day of rest. And they are also 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with an overall winning record. The Celtics finished the season 57-25 and they are 10-8 in the postseason. 

Prediction: Heat +3 (★★★)

Player Prop Bet

My player to watch in this contest is Jimmy Butler. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 28.5 points and +100 odds of scoring less than the projected scoring total. 

Butler raced out of the gates in the first two games against the Celtics, scoring 35 and 27 points respectively. However, he has been limited to less than 20 points in two of the last three games. 

With that being said, Miami is in desperate need of a big-time performance from its star player. And since Butler has a history of coming up clutch when this ball club needs it the most, I am going with the OVER here as well. 

Prediction: Jimmy Butler OVER 28.5 points (★★★)