Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Rangers Pick and Prediction – May 13, 2024

CAROLINA HURRICANES VS. NEW YORK RANGERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 13, 2024 — On one hand, Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour felt Game 4 was the least effective game the Hurricanes had played in this series. On the other, it’s the only game that the Hurricanes have won.

That’s just been the nature of this series, where every game has been decided by one goal. Two have gone to overtime, and Carolina could easily be the team with a chokehold on this series instead of New York. There hasn’t been much to separate the teams, which is why the Rangers aren’t counting on anything yet.

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Well, there’s been one big difference: the Hurricanes stayed out of the box in Game 4. New York’s power play has been dominant this series, scoring on four of 14 opportunities. But the Blueshirts only got one chance in Game 4 and couldn’t cash it in for a goal. Carolina can win this series if it doesn’t give away chances, but the Rangers are too good top to bottom to give them chances with the man advantage.

The other problem for New York in Game 4 was that the Rangers didn’t start the game well. Carolina played like a team that was fighting for its life in Game 4, while the Rangers treated it as just another playoff game. That shouldn’t be the case this time, with the Blueshirts back in the Garden in front of a crowd ready to see this series put to bed.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Monday, May 13 at 7 p.m. EST

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 69% on New York

Public Money: 76% on New York

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 13th, 2024

Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Rangers In-Season Trends

These teams have almost no daylight between them. Out of their past nine meetings, eight of them have been decided by exactly one goal. The Rangers have held the better of the play, winning six games of nine, but all six were decided by that one-goal margin.

With the series being a coin flip, it’s been rare to find a team winning while paying juice. Only twice in the past 10 meetings has a team actually won at less than plus money. This will make it three, as both teams are going off at -110.

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The goaltenders would suggest a series of unders, but three of four matchups have gone over. All three of those resulted in seven goals and a 4-3 final score, one way or the other.

Players to Watch

Fittingly, ex-Ranger Brady Skjei had the Hurricanes’ first successful power play goal of the series. The Rangers have dominated on special teams, which is why they lead the series. Sebastian Aho has to step up when Carolina gets a power play, as he had 15 goals on special teams (13 PPG and two short-handed) in the regular season. He hasn’t scored on the power play at all in the postseason, even though he does lead Carolina with 10 playoff points.

The more time Adam Fox spends on the ice, the better things are for the Rangers. Fox is more of an offensive-minded defenseman, so he gets more ice time when the Rangers are on the power play or 5-on-5. When the Rangers take penalties, he’s not on the ice quite as often. He came up with an assist in both games in the Garden, and he’s always a threat to find the scoresheet.

Fox tends to go for assists over goals, as his 56 assists ranked second on the Rangers. But he did score 17 goals, and he led the Blueshirts in shots on goal in Game 4. At +420 to score a goal, he could be a major value play.

The Pick

This series has been far too even to end quickly. Carolina knows now it can beat New York; it’s just a matter of avoiding costly penalties.

The Rangers are still the better team and should emerge victorious. But the Hurricanes have played too well in this series to go quietly. This feels like it’s heading back to Raleigh.