Carolina Hurricanes vs. New Jersey Devils Expert Pick

CAROLINA HURRICANES VS. NEW JERSEY DEVILS EXPERT PICK – If the Devils make it to the Eastern Conference Finals, maybe they should save everyone a lot of time and trouble by forfeiting the first two games and starting with Game 3.

Once again, New Jersey turned in two terrible showings in the first two games before turning things around in Game 3. Granted, the Devils got some help from an atrocious performance from Carolina in Game 3, but once again, New Jersey’s got a chance to make it a series.

But Carolina has also been here before. In their first round series with the Islanders, the Hurricanes claimed the first two games in Raleigh, only to come up to Long Island and get drilled by four goals in Game 3. The Hurricanes responded with a 5-2 win in Game 4 to put a chokehold on the series and finished off New York in six games. 

This Hurricanes squad is a veteran outfit that’s shown it can handle playoff pressure, and odds are high that they’ll be ready for this matchup after failing to show up in Game 4. For the Devils to even the series, they’re going to have to hit the gas again like they did in Game 3.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Tuesday, May 9th at 7 p.m. EDT

Where: Prudential Center, Newark, N.J.

Public Bets: 53% on Carolina

Public Money: 70% on Carolina

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 8th, 2023

Carolina vs. New Jersey In-Season Trends

The eight-goal outburst represented a rarity for New Jersey, as the Devils were not a high-octane offense down the stretch. During the playoffs, they’ve scored four or less in nine of their 10 games, only going over the total because the opponent scored five goals on them.

New Jersey did rank fourth in goals in the regular season, but they did most of their scoring in the earlier part of the calendar and seemed to play more of a defensive game as the season wore on. As such, they’ve played UNDER in six of 10 postseason games.

The Hurricanes were more of an under team all year, but because of that, they’ve played to incredibly low totals in the postseason. As such, they’ve played OVER in six of nine, including all three games in this series.

This also might be a game to live bet: the team that’s scored first has won five of six in this matchup this year, and four of those were decided by at least two goals.

Players to Watch

Carolina’s Jesper Fast is not someone you want on the opposing side in the postseason.

When he gets rolling during the playoffs, he’s very difficult to stop. This is already his third postseason with at least six points, no small feat for a third-liner who usually scores between 25 and 35 points for the entire 82-game season.

He’s notched a goal or assist in all three games in this series, and backing him to get a point seems like a good value play.

For New Jersey, this equation couldn’t be more simple: get Jack Hughes the puck and give him time and space. Hughes finally got going in Game 3 with two goals and two assists, but before that, he’d scored just five points in nine playoff games and never more than one in a game.

His lack of offense nearly cost the Devils in their series with the Rangers, and New Jersey won’t survive this series without more showings like Game 3 from Hughes. The Devils get the second line change again as the home team, so Hughes will have the favorable matchups he didn’t get in Raleigh. New Jersey coach Lindy Ruff must take full advantage of that.

The Pick

The way that Carolina completely failed to show up for two periods has me leaning toward a major bounce-back from the Hurricanes here. There’s also the fact that the Hurricanes completely embarrassed the Devils’ special teams, as Carolina scored three shorthanded goals in Game 3. Had the Hurricanes not spent the first 40 minutes getting hammered 5-on-5, that would have meant something.

I think the Hurricanes match the intensity here, and when they do, they’re the best team in the Metropolitan Division. With the Hurricanes getting plus money here, they’re the value play.

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