Cardinals vs. Pirates: Monday, July 22, 2024

CARDINALS VS. PIRATES: MONDAY, JULY 22, 2024 — It’s hard to overstate the importance of this series for the Pirates. With the 100-game mark approaching, Pittsburgh sits just half a game out of a playoff spot. With a sweep of the Cardinals, the Pirates would definitely take over a playoff position at the end of the series. And with the trade deadline coming fast, selling won’t be an option for Pittsburgh as long as the Pirates don’t fall apart to end July.

But if the Pirates are going to play postseason baseball, Mitch Keller has to solve St. Louis. Since the beginning of May, Keller has taken the mound 12 times, and the Pirates put 10 of them in the win column. The only exceptions were a pair of games against the Cardinals, who have tortured the Pirates in this era. Pittsburgh’s only appearance in the main draw in the past 30 years ended at the hands of St. Louis, and the Cardinals have mostly dominated the Pirates since the creation of the NL Central.

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The Cardinals are also coming off proving themselves against their main competition in the NL wild card round. St. Louis sits in the No. 5 slot, just behind No. 4 Atlanta. The Braves aren’t catching the Phillies, so they’re the most likely team the Cardinals would see in round 1. And that would be fine with them, as St. Louis has now beaten the Braves four out of six. They’re also getting solid pitching out of Andre Pallante, who already faced and beat Pittsburgh once this month.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Monday, July 22 at 6:40 p.m. EST

Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh

Starting Pitchers: Andre Pallante, STL (4-4, 4.21 ERA, 41 K’s) vs. Mitch Keller, PIT (10-5, 3.46 ERA, 105 K’s)

Public Bets: 74% on Pittsburgh

Public Money: 58% on Pittsburgh

Cardinals vs. Pirates In-Season Trends

The matchup as a whole hasn’t really been a problem for Pittsburgh. The problem has been that for whatever reason, the Cardinals hit their best against Keller. St. Louis has only gone 4-2 against the Pirates this season, and 6-4 in the teams’ past 10 matchups. But against Keller, the Cardinals are 2-0 and have put up 11 runs.

For the year, Keller has a 3.46 ERA, but it’s 7.36 when facing St. Louis. Regardless of who pitches, every game has been fairly close. Each of the past 10 meetings have been decided by three runs or less, and five of them were by a single run.

Players to Watch

Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman are tied for the Cardinals’ team lead in home runs. That’s problematic for Pittsburgh, because both saw the ball well off of Keller the last time they faced him. Both took him deep when the Cardinals came to Pittsburgh earlier this month, and the entire St. Louis lineup got going in a 7-4 win over the Pirates that day.

Oneil Cruz went hitless on Sunday against Philadelphia, but before that, he had four multi-hit games out of his past six appearances. He hasn’t hit great against St. Louis, going 6-for-23 on the season, but he seems to be surging at the moment. The Pirates really need him to get rolling in this series.

The Prediction

I still like the Pirates to make a run toward the postseason. The overall rotation is good, and the Pirates’ young players are learning how to win at this level. But for whatever reason, Keller just doesn’t have it against the Cardinals. This team sees him well whenever they face him, and that means the value is with the visitors.

Pittsburgh might well win this series, but St. Louis appears the better bet for this game.