Canada vs. Argentina Expert Pick and Prediction – July 9, 2024

CANADA VS. ARGENTINA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – July 9, 2024 — It’s a rare rematch in the Copa America semifinals, as Canada gets a second shot at Argentina after losing the opening match. This match should open up a little more from Canada’s perspective, as Les Rouges don’t have to worry about the prospect of a blowout.

In the first matchup, Canada had to play cautiously, knowing that a blowout could kill their chances of advancing past the group. Now they’re in the knockouts, and there’s no goal differential to worry about. However, it’s still going to be very difficult for the Canadians to stand up to the world champions.

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And there’s no delusion in the Canadian camp about their situation. They know that they’ve got about a 1-in-1000 chance of beating Argentina, and that’s fine with them. Reaching the semifinals is a victory in and of itself for this Canadian side. They’re still finding themselves, and they’re on track to do well in 2026.

Argentina, of course, is a machine. The Albiceleste have hardly been scratched in this tournament, giving up just one goal in four matches. Granted, Argentina didn’t have the toughest path to get here. Group A proved pretty weak considering Chile and Peru never scored, and Argentina got pushed to the wire by Ecuador. Even in this match, Argentina has reason to hold back. With Colombia or Uruguay waiting in the final, Argentina wants to be ready for what’s sure to be a tough fight to retain the crown.

Kickoff

Teams: Canada vs. Argentina

When: Tuesday, July 9 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.

TV: FS1

Spread: Canada +1.5/Argentina -1.5

Moneyline: Canada +950/Argentina -310/Draw +400

To Advance: Canada +700/Argentina -1400

Totals: Over 2.5 (-125)/Under 2.5 (+100)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of July 9th, 2024 

Scouting Canada

Canada pressed the issue against Venezuela, and it was duly rewarded when Jacob Shaffelburg found the breakthrough in the first half. Shaffelburg is another example of how coach Jesse Marsch seems to be pressing all the right buttons since taking charge of Canada. The Nashville wing was a forgotten man under former coach John Herdman, but Marsch has given him more playing time as he’s grown into the job.

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With Alphonso Davies controlling the back line and Jonathan David and Cyle Larin making an impact up top, Canada can’t be overlooked. This is a side that can cause problems for good opponents — it’s just not yet on the level of a world power like Argentina.

Scouting Argentina

Lionel Messi gets all the headlines, but Julian Alvarez was the one doing the damage in the first meeting. Alvarez’s goal allowed the Argentines to finally break through for a marker, and Canada spent the rest of the match chasing things. Argentina hasn’t lost a match since November of last year to Argentina, and four of its past six opponents have failed to find a goal against this defense.

In this tournament, Argentina has taken a pragmatic approach. It knows it’s a six-game slog from having done this in both 2021 and 2022. The Albiceleste know they have the best player on the pitch in Messi in every match they play. It’s really just a matter of letting the match come to them and letting the result follow.

Best Bets

Argentina Win to Nil (-130): There’s no value at all on Argentina to win. Taking the Albiceleste to win to nil at least offers something reasonable. The reality is that Argentina can choke off any threat Canada poses, and both sides know it. Even if Canada throws caution to the wind, it still has to beat this defense.

Under 2.5 Goals (+100): This is a risky maneuver, because the match could easily open up as Canada gets desperate. But the most likely outcome is for Argentina to get an early second-half goal and boss the remainder of the match.

Argentina 2-0 (+380): These are really low odds for a correct score, which speaks to how unlikely Canada is to find a marker. Argentina has its style, and it’s very well known. That makes it difficult to get value here.