Butler vs. Marquette Expert Pick and Prediction – December 18, 2024

BUTLER VS. MARQUETTE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 18, 2024 — Which team is the real Butler? Is it the team that showed it could play at a power conference level when it beat Mississippi State and Southern Methodist? Or is it the one that spotted North Dakota State a 23-point lead and lost to both the Bison and Austin Peay?

The answer to that will decide if Butler is capable of competing in the Big East. The Bulldogs have only made the postseason at all in two of their past five seasons where postseason was played (they would have qualified for the NCAA tournament in 2020) and haven’t made the NCAAs since 2018. Last year, they were one-and-done in the NIT, and since the pandemic occurred, the Bulldogs haven’t finished higher than eighth in the league.

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That was where Marquette used to be four years ago, and the school addressed that by asking Steve Wojciechowski to seek employment elsewhere. Since Shaka Smart came to Milwaukee, the Golden Eagles haven’t finished below fifth in the Big East. Marquette looks like a favorite in the league again, but its performance on the road has been troubling.

But this game won’t be in Indianapolis; it’s at the Fiserv Forum. And that’s mostly been bad for Butler; the Golden Eagles have won five of the past six meetings between the teams in Milwaukee.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, December 18 at 9 p.m.

Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee

TV: FS1

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Butler vs. Marquette In-Season Trends

The Golden Eagles have really locked down when they’ve been at home. Marquette has completely shut down most teams who have come to Milwaukee, holding all but one visitor to 63 points or less. The one who didn’t was Wisconsin, and the Golden Eagles handled the Badgers 88-74. Butler knows all about how difficult stopping Wisconsin is; the Bulldogs just played the Badgers in Indianapolis and allowed 83 points in a loss.

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Butler has really struggled to find any consistency. The Bulldogs had covered five in a row before a buy game with Eastern Illinois that preceded a blowout against Houston. Butler has now failed to cover in four straight and has lost the past three games straight up.

The Difference-Makers

Patrick McCaffery has to be more aggressive with the basketball. He shot just seven times against Wisconsin, and he was 3-for-5 from behind the arc. Butler needs to hit its 3-point shots to win, as it ranks 19th nationally in 3-point shooting. McCaffery has long been a great shooter, and he needs to shoot more.

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Nobody needs to tell Kam Jones to step up the aggression. He was plenty aggressive in the win over Wisconsin, getting 32 points and four steals. Butler doesn’t take care of the ball very well, and Jones could create chaos.

The Pick

Butler usually does not end its possessions with a shot. The Bulldogs rely on teams fouling them, which is not a good way to play against Marquette. The Golden Eagles excel at forcing mistakes and getting good shots, both of which play into Butler’s weaknesses.

This just doesn’t seem a good matchup for the Bulldogs. With Butler sitting at a fairly high team total of 67, this might be a good spot to play team total as well as the spread if you can.