Bundesliga Sunday Picks: Matchweek 33

BUNDESLIGA SUNDAY PICKS MATCHWEEK 33 – Two weeks left, and still nobody blinks, as each of the remaining title contenders – Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund – won with ease again last weekend. In matchweek 32, the immovable colossi scored 11 goals between them to keep the gap at just a point in current champions Bayern’s favor, as Dortmund thrashed Borussia Mönchengladbach 5-2.

As such, most of the spotlight once again falls on Dortmund, but first we look at the lower echelons of the table, as Stuttgart aim to put themselves clear of automatic relegation.

Mainz (9th) vs Stuttgart (17th)

Date: Sunday, 05/21/2023 at 09:30 AM EST

Pitch: Mainz – Mewa Arena, Mainz, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Mainz (LLLWD) | Stuttgart (DLWDD) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Frankfurt 3-0 Mainz | | Stuttgart 1-1 Leverkusen |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +140 | TIE: +250 | AWAY: +160 |

Prop Bet: | Mainz to win 1st half & Over 1.5 Goals (+450) | 

Tips

• Mainz have a strong Bundesliga return after netting the opener this term (W11, D4, L1).
• The 05ers have also scored in each of their last ten Bundesliga matches.
• Mainz’s last four games have all seen a winning team score exactly three times.
• Stuttgart’s previous eight matches have all separated the teams by less than two goals.
• Each of Stuttgart’s last six league defeats saw an odd-numbered margin.
• Four of the visitors’ previous five Bundesliga losses on the road ended 2-1.

The Word

After such a promising start to 2023, Mainz have suddenly caved in from nowhere. A third straight defeat last weekend put their hopes of a top-six finish on life support, though a win combined with losses for the three teams above them will see the 05ers start the finale of 2022/23 within a point of sixth place – and their first UEFA competition in six years.

On paper, Mainz should blow Stuttgart away, though the visitors’ motivation levels should far exceed those of the home team. As shown on the graphic further down, a Swabian loss to follow unfavorable results the day before could see them rubber-stamp a third Bundesliga relegation in the space of less than a decade.

Despite the poor form of both sides, and Stuttgart’s failure to learn from the woes of last season, there will surely be plenty of goals in this one as the road team simply have to go for it.

But that only plays into the hands of a Mainz side that still has a lot of firepower – and a friendly rivalry within its ranks, with Karim Onisiwo and Marcus Ingvartsen tied on nine league goals apiece. Expect at least one of them to score.

PREDICTION: MAINZ 3 – 1 STUTTGART (+1600)

Augsburg (13th) vs Dortmund (2nd)

Date: Sunday, 05/21/2023 at 11:30 AM EST

Pitch: Augsburg – WWK Arena, Augsburg, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Augsburg (LWDDL) | Dortmund (WWDWD) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Bochum 3-2 Augsburg | | Dortmund 5-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +500 | TIE: +450 | AWAY: -285 |

Prop Bet: | Halftime Score: 1-1 (+600) | 

Tips

• Augsburg’s previous five games have produced a draw or a margin of one goal.
• Five of Augsburg’s six most recent home league wins ended 1-0.
• Dortmund have scored 4+ times in four of their last five wins.
• Six of Dortmund’s last seven away wins saw them score exactly twice.
• On the road, Dortmund have conceded the fewest goals between 31-45’ and 61-75’.
• All but one of the previous 15 Bundesliga H2Hs saw both teams score.

The Word

Dortmund have lost just once in 17 Bundesliga outings, but are winless in six competitive away games. However, they have almost always responded well to high stakes, so everything points to another fearless attacking masterclass from the Black and Yellow.

It is difficult not to feel for Augsburg at a time like this, as they still aren’t completely immune from automatic relegation. That said, they put up a good fight on hostile turf in January’s reverse fixture. Interestingly, the match itself was another contributor towards Dortmund’s 38% rate of matches producing at least five total goals.

To emphasize just how entertaining they are for the neutral, that percentage is unmatched by any of the 98 teams across Europe’s five biggest domestic leagues. Expect more of the same.

PREDICTION: AUGSBURG 1 – 4 DORTMUND (+1200)

Saturday’s Hot Tip

Union Berlin to beat Hoffenheim 2-1 (+750)

We anticipated a close-fought win for Union in last week’s picks. We were only half-right though, as the Iron Ones produced a scintillating attacking display that earned them a 4-2 victory over top-four rivals Freiburg and put them on the cusp of a UEFA Champions League spot. Not since the days of Kaiserslautern winning the title has there been such an incredible feat for a smaller top-flight club.

They’ll finish the job simply by bettering Freiburg’s Friday night result against Wolfsburg, while matching it all but achieves the same effect. As for Hoffenheim, they won’t make it easy, having won three of their previous four home games, with each win curiously seeing them score from the spot too – which makes their price of +425 to net a penalty here all the more tempting!

But Union’s defence is usually too smart to draw the ire of referees inside the box. That potentially clears the way for leading lights such as Sheraldo Becker to get Union over the line. Currently a +550 favorite to score first against Hoffenheim, the Surinamese striker took less than 180 seconds to strike twice against Freiburg in the previous round, and is still the capital side’s most recent away match winner.

Stats correct as of May 17, 2023 and do not include friendly/exhibition results.