Bundesliga Sunday Picks: Matchweek 30

BUNDESLIGA SUNDAY PICKS: MATCHWEEK 30 – There’s been another change at the top, after Dortmund thrashed Frankfurt 4-0 to retake the lead in an incredible Bundesliga title race that could easily go down to the final day of the campaign, even with Dortmund being favorites in all of their remaining matches.

The equation for Dortmund is simple: win every game, win their first title since doing so in 2012 under Jürgen Klopp. However, a poor recent H2H record against mid-table Borussia Mönchengladbach is hard to ignore, as is the form of Mainz, who they face on the final day:

Bayern Munich (2nd) vs Hertha Berlin (18th)

Date: Sunday, 04/30/2023 at 09:30 AM EST

Pitch: Bayern Munich – Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Bayern Munich (LDWWL) | Hertha Berlin (LLLDL) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | FSV Mainz 3-1 Bayern Munich | | Hertha Berlin 2-4 Werder Bremen |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: -800 | TIE: +750 | AWAY: +1200 |

Prop Bet: | Bayern to score a penalty: +205 | 

Tips

• Each of Bayern’s last five home matches have seen both teams score.
• All of those also witnessed goals beyond the hour mark.
• Bayern have netted at least twice in each of their last 14 competitive home wins.
• All of Bayern’s five most recent wins over Hertha also saw them lead at halftime.
• Hertha have conceded exactly twice inside the first 20 minutes in the last two rounds.
• The visitors’ last six Bundesliga away defeats have all come by a margin of 2+ goals.

The Word

This is exactly the type of game Bayern need to win to be champions for an eleventh year running, but they failed miserably against another distant underdog in their last home outing, and the consequences of a 1-1 draw at home to lowly Hoffenheim have since changed the entire complexion of a gripping title race.

With UEFA Champions League elimination and a predicted high-scoring defeat to Mainz on top, it’s no win in four overall for Bayern ahead of kick-off. You’d have to go back to the fall of 2018 to find the last time they had such a dreadful run.

But regardless of Bayern’s shock tie with Hoffenheim a fortnight ago, that will surely be forgotten when Hertha come to town. Winless in seven, the bottom-placed capital side are utter trash, conceding nine goals in their last two games alone.

There’s little else to say about this one, though you can bet your bottom dollar on one Bayern player netting at least twice, with Hertha permitting an opposition player to do so in each of the last two rounds.

PREDICTION: BAYERN MUNICH 4 – 0 HERTHA BERLIN (+650)

November 5, 2022 – Eric Choupo-Moting nets twice to set Bayern up for a possible third successive double over Hertha.

VfL Wolfsburg (8th) vs FSV Mainz 05 (7th)

Date: Sunday, 04/30/2023 at 11:30 AM EST

Pitch: VfL Wolfsburg – Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | VfL Wolfsburg (WDLDW) | FSV Mainz (WDDWD) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Bochum 1-5 VfL Wolfsburg | | FSV Mainz 3-1 Bayern Munich |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +130 | TIE: +240 | AWAY: +185 |

Prop Bet: | HT/FT & Goals: Mainz/Mainz & Over 2.5 (+650) | 

Tips

• None of Wolfsburg’s last five games won or drawn have produced 2-3 total goals.
• Wolfsburg have scored in all of their five most recent home games vs Mainz.
• Five of Wolfsburg’s previous seven home league games have seen 3+ total goals.
• Just one of Mainz’s seven wins in 2023 have seen them fail to score at least three times.
• Mainz have netted an odd number of goals in all six of their prior road trips made this year.
• Ludovic Ajorque has scored for Mainz in each of the previous four Bundesliga rounds.

The Word

It is hard not to absolutely love the bones of Mainz right now. After a wretched winter period either side of the World Cup break, they currently stand unbeaten in ten games, having also scored in every league game since the start of 2023.

Along the way, the 05ers have stared down the ‘superior’ likes of Leverkusen, RB Leipzig and Bayern – and promptly flipped the bird Stone Cold-style on each occasion, delivering a three-goal stunner every time.

The latest of those was only made more impressive when considering that Mainz were trailing 1-0 to Bayern at the hour mark.

Although they trail Mainz by only two points, and are themselves still hoping to qualify for European competition, Wolfsburg will be under immense pressure to come forward and attack.

But Mainz simply love to hit back on the counter against such setups, giving them every chance of going five league games unbeaten on hostile turf for the first time in two years.

PREDICTION: WOLFSBURG 1 – 2 MAINZ (+750)

Saturday’s Hot Tip

RB Leipzig win (>3.5 Goals) & Werder Bremen win (>2.5 Goals) (+1145)

In an unprecedented move, the Saturday tip is a two-game parlay. RB Leipzig are huge favorites at home to relegation-battling Hoffenheim, though a return of just one shutout in five games suggests they may well need multiple goals to prevail. As for exact scorelines that breach the 3.5 goal barrier, 3-1 in favor of the Red Bulls is currently priced at +800.

Meanwhile, Werder Bremen hit four in the last matchweek – as many as upcoming opponents Schalke conceded in their game (4-0 vs Freiburg) – with Bremen hitman Marvin Ducksch soaring into double figures for the season after smashing his first hat-trick since October 2017. Obviously, he’ll be one to watch again.

Stats correct as of April 24, 2023. Friendly results not included.