Bundesliga Sunday Picks: Matchweek 29

BUNDESLIGA SUNDAY PICKS: MATCHWEEK 29 – This Sunday has all the hallmarks of a day that could see the top-five establish a near-immovable monopoly for themselves, with as much as a nine-point gap from 5th to 6th being a highly plausible scenario come the new week.

If that is to be the case, fifth-placed Freiburg – complete with a golden boot-chasing Vincenzo Grifo – must firstly get a much-anticipated home victory over second-bottom Schalke. They will start Sunday’s action high on confidence after coming from behind to beat Werder Bremen last weekend:

Assuming Freiburg do their bit, all the pressure is then on Leverkusen to beat RB Leipzig in the next game, if they are to keep alive any realistic chances of finishing in one of the four UEFA Champions League qualification berths.

Bayer Leverkusen (6th) vs RB Leipzig (4th)

Date: Sunday, 04/23/2023 at 11:30 AM EST

Pitch: Bayer Leverkusen – BayArena, Leverkusen, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Bayer Leverkusen (DWWWW) | RB Leipzig (WWLLW) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Wolfsburg 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen | | RB Leipzig 3-2 Augsburg |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +155 | TIE: +255 | AWAY: +145 |

Prop Bet: | RB Leipzig to win & Over 2.5 Goals (+275) | 

Tips

• Leverkusen’s last six Bundesliga wins have all seen 3+ total goals.
• Five of those six victories witnessed both teams scoring.
• Leverkusen are without a shutout in five home league games.
• Of Leipzig’s previous 12 games overall, just one has ended level.
• Leipzig’s last four games (3W, 1L) have seen the winner lead at HT.
• Each of Leipzig’s four most recent away wins have come by an odd-numbered margin.

The Word

The fact that Leverkusen are anywhere near the top-four after surging under Xabi Alonso is a miracle enough in itself. But taking on a Leipzig team with plenty of goalscoring potential immediately after a midweek Europa League trip to Belgium could ultimately prove ruinous to their unlikely ambitions of finishing there.

A return of just one win in their last nine battles against the Red Bulls can only deepen the sense of doom that some particularly pessimistic Leverkusen fans might feel ahead of this one. That said, Leipzig aren’t completely reliable, having struggled more than anticipated in their previous two wins.

After a hard-fought 1-0 away victory over current basement boys Hertha Berlin, they made heavy work of a ‘lock’ against Augsburg, winning by a nervy 3-2 scoreline after Timo Werner hit a three-minute brace before halftime.

Werner’s form will again be crucial towards Leipzig staying in the top-four, especially if he can keep finding the same runs behind Leverkusen’s defensive lines.

PREDICTION: LEVERKUSEN 1 – 2 LEIPZIG (+650)

Borussia Mönchengladbach (10th) vs Union Berlin (3rd)

Date: Sunday, 04/23/2023 at 1:30 PM EST

Pitch: Borussia Mönchengladbach – Borussia-Park, Mönchengladbach, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Borussia Mönchengladbach (DWDDL) | Union Berlin (DLWWD) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | | Union Berlin 1-1 VfL Bochum |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +125 | TIE: +230 | AWAY: +195 |

Prop Bet: | HT/FT: Tie/Tie (+390) | 

Tips

• Each of Mönchengladbach’s last seven games have seen under 1.5 first-half goals.
• Mönchengladbach have lost just one of their previous eight Bundesliga home games.
• Just one of Union’s previous nine road trips in the league have seen them get a shutout.
• Union have scored exactly twice in each of their previous three Bundesliga away wins.
• All three of Union’s preceding trips to Mönchengladbach have seen one half produce exactly two goals.
• The last three H2Hs to see a halftime leader saw the team lose the second half.

The Word

Though the title looks like far too much of a stretch now, the incredible possibility of Union’s humble 22,000-capacity Stadion An der Alten Försterei hosting Champions League football becomes more real with every passing week that their top-four status survives.

But if the likes of reigning European champions Real Madrid are to grace the stadium any time soon, then Union must at the very least remain consistent against sides below them.

In that respect, a good foundation has been laid over the past few months, as indicated by the fact that Union are unbeaten in 11 Bundesliga games against teams currently below them. The solid backline also remains a prime asset, with Union still boasting the Bundesliga’s second-best defense after leaders Bayern Munich.

Meanwhile, mid-table Mönchengladbach have little to play for on paper, but the Borussia-Park crowd will certainly test Union’s mettle on Sunday.

So too will Marcus Thuram, who has scored in each of the Foals’ last five home league wins, and starts the matchweek equal-second with two others on 13 goals in the golden boot stakes.

PREDICTION: MÖNCHENGLADBACH 1 – 1 UNION BERLIN (+425)

Back on April 9, Mönchengladbach’s last home game saw them vanquish Wolfsburg 2-0 with Thuram rounding off the scoring.

Saturday’s Hot Tip

Mainz vs Bayern Munich: Mainz to win & Over 2.5 Goals (+650)

Bayern are still title favorites, but their recent 3-0 spanking at Manchester City in the first leg of the Champions League quarter-finals was psychologically damaging to say the least. There is also the tiring effects of Wednesday’s second leg to consider, with any game against Man City always demanding peak athletic performance to avoid total humiliation.

That trouncing at Manchester’s Etihad Stadium should have ended in an even bigger landslide for the English champions in truth. And the hangover from it resulted in one of this season’s biggest ‘solid gold locks’ being well-picked by a stubborn Hoffenheim the following Saturday, with the relegation candidates holding the giants of Germany to a 1-1 draw in their own backyard.

For that reason, Europe-chasing Mainz are very far down the list of teams Bayern want to travel to face right now. Still the revelation of 2023, the ‘Carnival Club’ are unbeaten in nine, and could move up to sixth if everything goes their way in this matchweek. In particular, watch out for Ludovic Ajorque, who has netted in all of Mainz’s last three games.

All information is correct as of April 18, 2023 – stats do not include friendly matches.