Bundesliga Sunday Picks: Matchweek 28

BUNDESLIGA SUNDAY PICKS: MATCHWEEK 28 – This week the focus falls on two teams who look set to at least finish in the top-six, but simply have no more room for error if they are to leap into the top-four with time now running out.

Werder Bremen (11th) vs Freiburg (5th)

Date: Sunday, 04/16/2023 at 09:30 AM EST

Pitch: Werder Bremen – Weserstadion, Bremen, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Werder Bremen (DLDLL) | Freiburg (LDDWD) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Mainz 2-2 Werder Bremen | | Freiburg 0-1 Bayern Munich |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +160 | TIE: +235 | AWAY: +150 |

Prop Bet: | Freiburg Win & Under 2.5 Goals (+475) | 

Tips

• Bremen’s last six games have all produced 3+ total goals (1W, 2T, 3L).
• The last five all saw both teams score.
• The three losses for Bremen came by a one-goal margin.
• Freiburg have scored exactly once in half of their last six Bundesliga games.
• All of those matches ended with a 1- 1 scoreline.
• Four of Freiburg’s last five Bundesliga away wins saw them get a shutout.

The Word

Despite having a recent history of low-scoring affairs, this match poses a very intriguing equation. Combined, the duo of Marvin Ducksch and prime golden boot candidate Nicolas Füllkrug have netted 24 Bundesliga goals this term – that’s only 15 fewer than Freiburg’s entire squad!

A late equalizer for Bremen in their latest game (2-2 vs Mainz) also put Füllkrug three goals clear of Freiburg’s best attacker Vincenzo Grifo in the Bundesliga scoring charts:

But despite being the only top-half side yet to smash the 40-goal barrier, Freiburg are still one of the best set-piece taking teams out there. Grifo also remains the leading penalty scorer with six converted spot-kicks, but Füllkrug is just one behind, which only intensifies the sense of competition between the two.

It’s going to be a tough one to call, but Freiburg should continue their defensively-tight ways against a Bremen side now showing the typical malaise of a side looking forward to next season, with safety practically in the bag and no feasible chance of a top-six finish.

And besides, Bremen’s streak of games producing over 2.5 goals has to end sometime…

PREDICTION: WERDER BREMEN 0 – 1 FREIBURG (+650)

Wolfsburg (9th) vs Bayer Leverkusen (6th)

Date: Sunday, 04/16/2023 at 01:30 PM EST

Pitch: Wolfsburg – Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Wolfsburg (LDWDD) | Bayer Leverkusen (WWWWW) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-0 Wolfsburg | | Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Frankfurt |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +170 | TIE: +245 | AWAY: +135 |

Prop Bet: | HT/FT: Tie/Leverkusen (+475) | 

Tips

• Seven of Wolfsburg’s eight most recent wins have come with a clean sheet.
• Wolfsburg’s last three home games have all ended in score draws.
• All of Wolfsburg’s previous five home games won/lost have separated the sides by 2+ goals.
• Leverkusen have scored beyond the hour mark in all of their last eight matches overall.
• Each of Leverkusen’s previous four away league wins saw them score exactly three goals.
• Of Leverkusen’s last ten goals scored during those victories, eight came after halftime.

The Word

Leverkusen have long been known as the eternal bridesmaids of the Bundesliga, but their momentum is title-worthy if nothing else, as they seek a first run of six straight league wins since the spring of 2016. Meanwhile, Wolfsburg know a defeat here will surely end their interest in finishing inside the top-six.

Amongst the men who could potentially sign off the death warrant of Wolfsburg’s hopes, Serdar Azmoun has also netted during added time at the end of the second half in Leverkusen’s last two Bundesliga outings – albeit during games in which Leverkusen were already leading.

By anyone’s admission, Leverkusen’s chances of a top-four finish still look delicate regardless, and any sudden downturn will likely prove fatal to them. Champions League qualification via winning this season’s Europa League is still an option, however, with Leverkusen recently progressing to the quarter-finals.

PREDICTION: WOLFSBURG 1 – 2 LEVERKUSEN (+650)

April 8 – Azmoun nets beyond the 90^th minute for a second game running.

Saturday’s Hot Tip

Leipzig to score exactly three goals vs Augsburg (+265)

Merely beating Bremen may not be enough to see Freiburg retake fourth place, as the ‘Breisgau-Brasilianer’ also require Augsburg to take at least an unlikely point at Leipzig the day before.

But simply put, that isn’t happening. Augsburg are now winless in nine road trips, only twice avoiding defeat while conceding at least two goals in all of them. That said, they only failed to score on one occasion in that run, so a parlay on both teams to score isn’t the worst idea in the world.

Make no mistake, however, Augsburg choke every time against consistent top-four contenders of a similar caliber to Leipzig, with defeats of 4-3 (vs Dortmund) and 5-3 (vs Bayern Munich) in 2023 alone. They were also humbled 4-0 in last season’s corresponding fixture against the Red Bulls.

Prices and stats correct as of April 11, 2023. Stats do not include friendly results.