Bundesliga Picks: Matchweek 26

BUNDESLIGA PICKS: MATCHWEEK 26 – This week, the Bundesliga’s first Sunday duo of April features a quartet of teams for whom European qualification isn’t on the agenda. But that won’t necessarily translate into a brace of dull affairs, and first up is a battle of two Rhineland rivals desperate for a win after seeing their respective runs of form tank in the early spring.

FC Cologne (13th) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (10th)

Date: Sunday, 04/02/2023 at 09:30 AM EST

Pitch: FC Cologne – RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Cologne (LLDLL) | Borussia Mönchengladbach (DLDLW) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Dortmund 6-1 Cologne | | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-2 Werder Bremen |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +115 | TIE: +255 | AWAY: +195 |

Prop Bet: | Mönchengladbach: Win to zero (+390) | 

Tips

• Each of Cologne’s previous five Bundesliga defeats saw them lose both halves.
• None of Cologne’s last four home games have seen both teams score.
• Borussia Mönchengladbach’s last three defeats all came by a 3+ goal margin.
• The same margin was produced in Gladbach’s sole away league win of the season.
• Gladbach’s last six league visits to Cologne all produced a winner on the day (3W, 3L).

The Word

The New Year began in perfect fashion for Cologne, as they destroyed Bremen 7-1. But with just one win since that monumental landslide, fears of a relegation playoff still linger. Gladbach have also found goals difficult to come by, and the concession of two equalisers to Bremen last time out only serves to highlight just how vital it is for them to find a way through Cologne’s backline early on.

In stark contrast to the recent fortunes of both sides in the final yards, all of the previous six Bundesliga H2Hs have seen both teams score. However, this looks like as good a time as any for that streak to end in Gladbach’s favour, such is the degree of Cologne’s current suffering ahead of the Bundesliga’s 96^th Rhineland derby between these sides.

PREDICTION: COLOGNE 0 – 1 BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH (+850)

Werder Bremen (11th) vs Hoffenheim (15th)

Date: Sunday, 04/02/2023 at 11:30 AM EST

Pitch: Werder Bremen – Weserstadion, Bremen, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Werder Bremen (DLLWL) | Hoffenheim (WLLLL) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-2 Werder Bremen | | Hoffenheim 3-1 Hertha Berlin |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +125 | TIE: +255 | AWAY: +180 |

Prop Bet: | HT/FT: Bremen/Bremen (+250) | 

Tips

• Werder Bremen’s last three games have seen both teams score & 3+ total goals.
• None of Bremen’s previous 12 home matches have ended level (5W, 7L).
• Bremen’s three latest home victories have all produced exactly three match goals.
• Hoffenheim’s previous four defeats all ended with a one-goal margin.
• The visitors are without a goal before half-time in each of their last five road trips overall.
• Three of Hoffenheim’s four latest Bundesliga visits to the Weserstadion have ended 1-1.

The Word

After so much misery for Hoffenheim, who ended an agonising spell of 155 days waiting for a league victory on March 18 with a 3-1 success over Hertha Berlin, it would be easy to overestimate their potential here. Make no mistake though, Bremen are still one of the upcoming weekend’s biggest locks, and will seldom have a better chance to end what is currently a 13-year wait for a league double over Hoffenheim.

Impressively, the hosts’ six-goal tally at home inside the opening quarter-hour is a joint-high with leaders Dortmund, so there is a clear expectation that the Green-White Army will start well in this latest conquest – especially against a Hoffenheim side travelling after undergoing six straight Bundesliga beatdowns on the road spanning back to November.

PREDICTION: WERDER BREMEN 2 – 1 HOFFENHEIM (+650)

Bremen ran out winners by that same scoreline in October’s reverse fixture.

Saturday’s Hot Tip

Bayern v Dortmund: Tie with goals (+425)

All the battles in the upper half take place on Saturday, culminating in the 108th Klassiker between champions Bayern Munich and challengers Borussia Dortmund, whose title triumph in 2012 remains the last time the famous silver shield wasn’t bedecked in scarlet ribbons.

Bayern were identified as clear favourites for Saturday’s showdown despite some key absences – but as we say over the Atlantic, it wouldn’t be a show without Punch.

Mere hours after that Klassiker feature was submitted, Bayern coach Julian Nagelsmann was suddenly fired by the German champions. It was an event made all the more shocking by the fact that he had only just seen his side through to the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals.

All this implies that his departure wasn’t down to Bayern’s results, but whatever the reason, the situation could play right into Dortmund’s hands – even if Nagelsmann’s replacement, Thomas Tuchel, is well known for his solid defensive setups.

And as stated in the Klassiker analysis, Marco Reus’ experience of taking on Bayern will be key to Dortmund exploiting a Bundesliga title rival in transition.

Reus’ goalscorer prices is therefore likely to attract much attention before kick-off, especially after pounding Cologne with his first brace since February 2022 back on matchweek 25.