Bundesliga Picks: Matchweek 25

BUNDESLIGA PICKS: MATCHWEEK 25 – Just ten rounds of the regular Bundesliga season remain, and with this Sunday representing the last action prior to a week-long spring international break, it could be the day that Bayern Munich put one hand on an eleventh straight German crown.

Much of that depends on Dortmund unexpectedly choking at home to Cologne the day before, which would open the door for the reigning champs to open up as much as a five-point gap at the top with a victory over Leverkusen.

Even that can’t be taken for granted of course, especially as Leverkusen proved us wrong by beating Werder Bremen in the previous round.

But before the main course, we have a duel of two contenders for a UEFA Champions League (UCL) qualification berth, both of whom are experiencing an explosive cocktail of hope and dread in the ‘Ides of March’…

Union Berlin (4th) vs Frankfurt (6th)

Date: Sunday, 03/19/2023 at 09:30 AM EST

Pitch: Union Berlin – Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Union Berlin (DDLDW) | Frankfurt (DDLWL) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Wolfsburg 1-1 Union Berlin | | Frankfurt 1-1 Stuttgart |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +130 | TIE: +215 | AWAY: +200 |

Prop Bet: | Goal between 31^stmin-HT: Yes (+115) | 

Tips

• Four of Union’s last six league victories have produced a 2-1 scoreline.
• But each of their previous three Bundesliga losses have come by a 3+ goal margin.
• Only Schalke currently equal Union’s 60% draw rate in the five-game home form table.
• Six (75%) of the last eight Bundesliga halves featuring Union produced no goals at all.
• Frankfurt’s previous three Bundesliga away games all saw 3 or 4 Total Goals.
• The visitors have recorded just one shutout in 22 Bundesliga road trips.
• Schalke are the only side who match Frankfurt’s 50% draw rate in the ten-game form table.
• Four of Frankfurt’s last five Bundesliga away draws have ended 1-1.

The Word

The hosts and visitors go into this one after midweek trips to Belgium and Italy respectively, potentially creating something of a fatigue factor that could contribute to a low scorer, though Union might also be physically disadvantaged by a day’s less rest.

That said, the mental pressure is mostly on Frankfurt at least, despite any confidence gained from winning the reverse fixture 2-0. Simply put, they know they have no choice but to go for broke, if they are to get a precious win that significantly narrows the gap to fourth.

Ultimately though, both sides come into this clash with rich form for stalemates, and if ever there was a game set up to end 1-1, this is surely it, with basically every metric – along with the latest Draft Kings prices – pointing at that specific scoreline.

PREDICTION: UNION BERLIN 1 – 1 FRANKFURT (+400)

Bayer Leverkusen (9th) vs Bayern Munich (1st)

Date: Sunday, 03/19/2023 at 11:30 AM EST

Pitch: Bayer Leverkusen – BayArena, Leverkusen, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Bayer Leverkusen (WWDLW) | Bayern Munich (WWWLW) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Werder Bremen 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen | | Bayern Munich 5-3 Augsburg |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +350 | TIE: +360 | AWAY: -185 |

Prop Bet: | HT/FT: Bayern/Bayern and Over 2.5 Goals (+180) | 

Tips

• All of Leverkusen’s previous four Bundesliga games won/lost have produced 4+ total goals.
• Both teams scored in all of those matches above.
• None of Leverkusen’s previous 42 Bundesliga home games have ended 0-0.
• Bayern have lost just once in 13 away games across all competitions.
• The champions averaged 2.69 goals per-game across those road trips.
• Bayern’s last three H2H victories have both beaten the -1 handicap.
• Each of Bayern’s previous eight Bundesliga away wins also saw them lead at half-time.

The Word

Many would argue that Leverkusen are the most illustrious club never to win the Bundesliga, thanks mainly to a smattering of second-place finishes behind Bayern in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

While they haven’t scaled such heights since 2011 and certainly won’t this season, Leverkusen would simply love to get one over Bayern in league action for the first time in close to four years, purely on the basis of those millennial near-misses.

And ‘Die Werkself’ will surely fancy their chances of netting, after Bayern conceded three at home to humble Augsburg last weekend. That is nothing short of criminal negligence from a defensive standpoint, but right now it doesn’t seem to matter how many they concede.

As is the way of a seemingly immovable object like Bayern, the Bavarians have gone into their traditional late-season ‘troll mode’, and so the logical outcome is another high-octane victory for the 31-time Bundesliga title winners.

PREDICTION: LEVERKUSEN 1 – 3 BAYERN (+850)

Saturday’s hot tip

Dortmund to win by 3 Goals vs Cologne (+550)

Much like Bayern, their current nearest challengers Dortmund can give as good as they get. Unlike the champions, however, they were unable to bag a widely-expected three points last weekend, in their 100^th Bundesliga ‘Revierderby’ with Schalke.

Dortmund twice allowed the relegation-battling Royal Blues to equalise in a 2-2 draw, but all matchday prices indicate that Dortmund will get back to winning ways and start Sunday at the summit, after beating a Cologne side winless in four and marooned in mid-table.

Once again, it is surely just a question of how many Edin Terzić’s men get at Signal Iduna Park.

All prices and stats correct as of March 14, 2023. Stats do not include friendlies or exhibitions.