Bundesliga Picks: Matchweek 23

BUNDESLIGA PICKS: MATCHWEEK 23 – Just four points separate 14^th from 18^th going into this weekend, and here we look at the chances of three relegation battlers, two of which do battle in one of the clashes featured.

First though, a look at this month’s featured team and their upcoming battle against table-topping reigning champions Bayern Munich.

VfB Stuttgart (15th) vs Bayern Munich (1st)

Date: Saturday, 03/04/2023 at 12:30 PM EST

Pitch: VfB Stuttgart – Mercedes-Benz Arena, Stuttgart, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Stuttgart (LWLLL) | Bayern Munich (WLWDD) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Schalke 2-1 Stuttgart | | Bayern Munich 3-0 Union Berlin |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +500 | TIE: +400 | AWAY: -275 |

Prop Bet: | Bayern to score a penalty (+245) | 

Tips

• Stuttgart have lost on each of the previous 12 occasions they’ve hosted Bayern.
• The Swabians are winless in seven clashes against the Bavarians at any venue.
• Bayern have lost just once in 12 away games across all competitions.
• The champions have averaged 2.75 goals per-game across those dozen road trips.
• All of the last six head-to-head battles have produced 4+ Total Goals.
• Four of those six games saw exactly four goals scored in total.

The Word

Bayern destroyed Union Berlin 3-0 last week, bringing the unlikely title challengers crashing to earth. We said all there is to say about them right now in last weekend’s picks, and while their road record isn’t as solid as their ruthless home form, expect more of the same.

Meanwhile, despite starting March with something of a head start over the endangered pack chasing behind them, nobody envies Stuttgart. That’s because it gets no easier after what could be a long afternoon for Bruno Labbadia’s men against Bayern, especially when also considering their league record as underdogs during the current campaign:

The above H2H records also show that the rest of March offers little respite if any, especially with Stuttgart losing seven of the 12 corresponding fixtures (highlighted) played across the previous four seasons. Prepare for another big red landslide.

PREDICTION: STUTTGART 0 – 3 BAYERN MUNICH (+850)

VfL Bochum (17th) vs Schalke (18th)

Date: Saturday, 03/04/2023 at 09:30 AM EST

Pitch: VfL Bochum – Vonovia-Ruhrstadion, Bochum, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Bochum (LLLWL) | Schalke (WDDDD) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Werder Bremen 3-0 Bochum | | Schalke 2-1 Stuttgart |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +130 | TIE: +235 | AWAY: +180 |

Prop Bet: | Under 1.5 Goals (+255) | 

Tips

• None of Bochum’s previous six home games have seen a goalless first half.
• Four of Schalke’s last five games have ended 0-0.
• On the road, Schalke have neither scored nor conceded in the first 15 minutes.
• November 1986 marks the last goalless H2H draw in the Bundesliga.
• Three of the last four H2Hs here have seen an odd-numbered winning margin.

The Word

Knowing what is at stake, neither side will dare to take undue risks – so expect a quiet start with sneaky tackles and nervous passing. Yet, while Bochum may lament the league-high of 54 goals conceded before this weekend, the five-game winning run at home that preceded their 2-0 loss to Freiburg last time at the Ruhrstadion remains fresh in the memory.

But even fresher in the mind is Schalke’s bravery in a similar must-win encounter against Stuttgart, putting two goals in the onion sack to send the Veltins Arena wild. It was a perfect end to an otherwise torrid February, though the Royal Blues’ hard work has only just begun.

However, they remain bottom with just four away goals in the league and a winless Bundesliga road run now standing at 38 games – which is already an outright record – making a narrow home win seem like the most logical outcome in this battle of the bottom two.

PREDICTION: BOCHUM 1 – 0 SCHALKE (+600)

VfL Wolfsburg (7th) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (6th)

Date: Sunday, 03/05/2023 at 11:30 AM EST

Pitch: VfL Wolfsburg – Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Wolfsburg (WLDLL) | Frankfurt (LWLWD) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Cologne 0-2 Wolfsburg | | RB Leipzig 2-1 Frankfurt |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +140 | TIE: +235 | AWAY: +170 |

Prop Bet: | Tie & Under 2.5 Goals (+360) | 

Tips

• Wolfsburg’s last five home games have all separated the sides by 2+ Goals.
• Four of those have seen the winner on the day get a shutout.
• Frankfurt’s previous seven competitive away games all saw 2 or 3 Total Goals.
• All of Frankfurt’s last four Bundesliga away draws ended 1-1.
• Across the last three H2Hs, five of six halves produced a 1-0 scoreline.

The Word

Given that Frankfurt roll up to the Volkswagen Arena five points ahead of their hosts, a victory for the visitors could have a huge impact on the final complexion of the top-six.

So too might it put them within a point of fourth place, and that would certainly be a good piece of compensation, after their dreams of lifting the UEFA Champions League trophy were all but shattered by Napoli recently in the first leg of their Round of 16 tie.

Frankfurt are also on a mini-skid of three losses in four overall, though they certainly have the firepower to get out of it, especially when armed with golden boot contender Randal Kolo Muani.

In addition, the Eagles face a side that has conceded seven goals across their two preceding home games against current top-six opposition.

Wolfsburg were firmly second-best in recent home defeats to Leipzig (0-3) and Bayern (2-4). That only strengthens the doubts surrounding their chances of victory here, which is arguably the only result that can keep their chances of a top-six finish (and European qualification) alive.

A clean sheet seems unlikely, but the home crowd should have enough power to get the Wolves something out of this one.

PREDICTION: WOLFSBURG 1 – 1 FRANKFURT (+425)

Prices correct as of March 1, 2023. Stats do not include exhibitions / friendlies.