Bundesliga Picks: Matchweek 22

Bundesliga Picks: Matchweek 22

If the title race wasn’t already on a knife edge, it certainly is now, with the Bundesliga’s top-three now level on points in the Bundesliga’s podium positions.

On Sunday, two of those will clash in one of the biggest David vs Goliath battles in this league’s 59-year history.

Bayern Munich (1st) vs Union Berlin (3rd)

Date: Sunday, 02/26/2023 at 11:30 AM EST

Pitch: Bayern Munich – Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Bayern Munich (LWWDD) | Union Berlin (DWWWW) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-2 Bayern Munich | | Union Berlin 0-0 Schalke |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: -320 | TIE: +425 | AWAY: +700 |

Prop Bet: | First Scorer: Serge Gnabry (+400) | 

Tips

• Bayern Munich have never lost in seven prior meetings with Union Berlin, winning four.
• Serge Gnabry has scored in each of Bayern’s last four home league wins.
• The visitors are unbeaten away from home in all competitions so far this year (3W, 1T).
• Union have avoided defeat in half of their six Bundesliga road trips faced as underdogs.

The Word

We’ve already talked about Union Berlin’s background, in relation to this once in a lifetime opportunity to stun the world. Think Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson, the Miracle on Ice and Tom Brady ever retiring for good… ball them together, and you’re still not even close to the unlikelihood of the ‘Iron Ones’ becoming German champions this year.

To summarize the gulf in size between these clubs, ten individual Bayern players are reported to earn more apiece than the entire Union squad put together, so this would be a win heard ’round the world for the visitors. They remain unbeaten in 2023’s league action, but will still be kicking themselves despite the gravity-defying position they currently occupy.

That’s because Union should now be top already, but failed to show the expected incisiveness in front of goal last time out, against the basement-dwelling Schalke, who ground out a record fourth straight 0-0 draw with sheer grim-faced determination.

Bayern, meanwhile, are unbeaten in 17 Bundesliga home games, winning eleven times. The current champions have been utterly brutal at the Allianz Arena in recent times too, even by their own standards, averaging an eye-watering 4.8 goals per match across their last five home league victories.

It’s the defining game of a season, but one which Bayern typically win on a foundation of confidence gained from utterly dominating German football across the past decade.

PREDICTION: BAYERN MUNICH 3 – 1 UNION BERLIN (+800)

Meanwhile, the third team leading the way has taken maximum points from every league game in 2023. Borussia Dortmund remain the last side ever to deny Bayern the league title a whole eleven years ago, and travel to Hoffenheim the day before Union’s biggest test of the domestic season.

Hoffenheim (15th) vs Borussia Dortmund (2nd)

Date: Saturday, 02/25/2023 at 09:30 AM EST

Pitch: Hoffenheim – PreZero Arena, Sinsheim, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Hoffenheim (LLLLD) | Dortmund (WWWWW) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Augsburg 1-0 Hoffenheim | | Dortmund 4-1 Hertha Berlin |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +295 | TIE: +320 | AWAY: -140 |

Prop Bet: | First Goal Interval: 11-20 mins (+330) | 

Tips

• Dortmund still to draw a Bundesliga road fixture this term, winning six of 11.
• Hoffenheim suffering the longest current winless streak in the league.
• Dortmund are unbeaten in five H2H clashes against Hoffenheim.
• The last four meetings at Hoffenheim have been drawn or settled by a single goal.
• Dortmund have netted exactly twice in each of their last five away games.

The Word

Dortmund took a while to adapt to life after Erling Haaland’s departure to Manchester City last summer, but in luminaries such as Jude Bellingham, Giovanni Reyna and Karim Adeyemi, there remains an incredible core of talent still yet to reach the prime of their careers.

Notably, the latter of that trio has scored three times already this month. While he is set to miss this one through injury, there are plenty of candidates to make their mark against a Hoffenheim side still in freefall despite the appointment of Pellegrino Matarazzo.

Despite Matarazzo’s prior experience with the club’s U17 youth side and its own culture for nurturing talent, he has proven unable to change the Kraichgauer’s collision course with a relegation spot as yet. A drab 1-0 defeat to Augsburg in the previous round made it two losses from as many games in charge for the American.

This should be a pretty straightforward win for Dortmund, a result which – if combined with a draw between Bayern and Union – could put them two points clear at the top.

PREDICTION: HOFFENHEIM 0 – 3 DORTMUND (+1300)

SC Freiburg (4th) vs Bayer Leverkusen (10th)

Date: Sunday, 02/26/2023 at 09:30 AM EST

Pitch: Freiburg – Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Freiburg (WWLWD) | Leverkusen (LWLLW) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Bochum 0-2 Freiburg | | Leverkusen 2-3 Mainz |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +115 | TIE: +250 | AWAY: +200 |

Prop Bet: | First Goal Method: Penalty (+600) | 

Tips

• Freiburg are undefeated across their past nine home league games, winning seven.
• Leverkusen have lost five (1W, 1T) of their previous seven league games faced as underdogs.
• Last five head-to-head clashes have all seen both teams score (3+ Goals total each time).
• Half of the previous ten mutual league clashes have seen no first-half goals.
• Vincenzo Grifo has a penalty kick success rate of 85% across his entire career.

Grifo has certainly gone into overdrive on home turf in particular lately, scoring five goals – including four penalties – across his last four Bundesliga home games!

The Word

Freiburg have already picked up more points at this stage than in any Bundesliga campaign during the three-points-for-a-win era, keeping themselves within grasping distance of the leading trio after a 2-0 win over Bochum last weekend. As such, a first league double over mid-table Leverkusen in 27 years looks to be a real possibility.

As if that wasn’t enough, the visitors might also be fatigued after a midweek trip to Monaco. On that note, Leverkusen are winless on the previous three occasions an away game has followed European duties, making this a solid home banker on paper.

PREDICTION: FREIBURG 2 – 1 LEVERKUSEN (+650)

All prices accurate as of February 22, 2023. Stats do not include friendlies / exhibitions.