Bundesliga Picks: Matchweek 21

Bundesliga Picks: Matchweek 21

BUNDESLIGA PICKS: MATCHWEEK 21 – The title race remains as relentless as ever, with the top three from last week – Bayern Munich, Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund – staying put after winning their respective games in matchweek 20.

Two of them feature here, but first we look at an intriguing clash of teams who remain in pursuit of the top-four, and a coveted UEFA Champions League qualification berth.

Wolfsburg (7th) vs RB Leipzig (5th)

Date: Saturday, 02/18/2023 at 09:30 AM EST

Pitch: Wolfsburg – Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Wolfsburg (DLLWW) | RB Leipzig (LDWWD) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Schalke 0-0 Wolfsburg | | RB Leipzig 1-2 Union Berlin |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +225 | TIE: +250 | AWAY: +105 |

Prop Bet: | 1H Over 0.5 and 2H Over 1.5 (+110) | 

Tips

• Wolfsburg are winless in four games across all competitions.
• The home side’s previous three home league wins saw an even-numbered winning margin.
• Wolfsburg’s last nine home league wins have seen them score inside the first 30 minutes.
• Eight of Leipzig’s previous nine games witnessed both teams find the net.
• Leipzig are undefeated in eight away games across all competitions.
• Either André Silva or Christopher Nkunku netted first in their last four away wins.
• Nkunku scored twice in the reverse clash back in August, helping Leipzig win 2-0.
• In six previous Bundesliga seasons with joint participation, neither side has won both H2Hs.

The Word

There can be no doubt that RB Leipzig missed a huge trick last weekend, going down 2-1 to Union Berlin in an exact reverse of the scoreline predicted. They’ll be a wounded animal for sure, but anger can only be their enemy at the Volkswagen Arena – a ground from which only leaders Bayern Munich have taken full points since the start of October.

An even more in-depth look at Wolfsburg’s recent home form further underlines beliefs that they can arrest their own winless three-game slump, with Niko Kovač’s men failing to plunder at least two goals in just one of their previous 12 home matches.

That makes it two teams with bags of attacking prowess eager to redeem themselves, equating to a solid gold lock for both teams to score.

PREDICTION: WOLFSBURG 2 – 2 RB LEIPZIG (+950)

Union Berlin (2nd) vs Schalke (18th)

Date: Sunday, 02/19/2023 at 09:30 AM EST

Pitch: Union Berlin – Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Union Berlin (WWWWW) | Schalke (DDDLL) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | RB Leipzig 1-2 Union Berlin | | Schalke 0-0 Wolfsburg |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: -180 | TIE: +260 | AWAY: +475 |

Prop Bet: | Union Berlin to win by 2 Goals (+300) | 

Tips

• Union Berlin have scored exactly twice in their last five victories.
• Four of those wins, including last week’s win at Leipzig, ended with a 2-1 scoreline.
• Kevin Behrens has netted in each of Union’s previous two home wins.
• Union’s last three Bundesliga home victories all saw the decisive goal arrive beyond the 80th minute.
• Both of Schalke’s defeats in 2023 have seen them concede exactly twice in that period.
• Schalke are without a win in 37 Bundesliga road trips – already an outright league record!
• Four of Schalke’s last five away losses have come after a half-time deficit.

The Word

The sight of Leipzig players slumping to the turf in despair on Saturday evening was as iconic as the party scenes on the Union Berlin touchline. Their million-to-one title dreams just got all the more real with such a significant underdog road win, and the fact that they came from 1-0 down inside the space of just 11 minutes to get it is a resounding testament to their indomitable spirit.

Urs Fischer’s men are now perfect across five league games this year, but the effects of a midweek trip to Amsterdam, where they face Dutch champions Ajax, could be a draining experience. And as pointed out in the recent analysis of Union Berlin’s February schedule, you have to putt from three inches as well as you drive from 400 yards to become a true champion.

Enter Schalke, the worst side in the league and seven points adrift of guaranteed safety from relegation, after a third straight 0-0 draw (vs Wolfsburg). While that’s a defensive improvement, the lack of goals means they look set to make it just one win in 15 Bundesliga rounds this weekend, especially after being thrashed 6-1 by Union back in August.

PREDICTION: UNION BERLIN 2 – 0 SCHALKE (+450)

Dortmund (3rd) vs Hertha Berlin (16th)

Date: Sunday, 02/19/2023 at 11:30 AM EST

Pitch: Borussia Dortmund – Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany

Current Bundesliga Form: | Dortmund (WWWWW) | Hertha Berlin (WLLLL) |

Last Bundesliga Match: | Werder Bremen 0-2 Dortmund | | Hertha Berlin 4-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach |

Head to Head

Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: -320 | TIE: +450 | AWAY: +650 |

Prop Bet: | Goal Scored – Up to 30th Minute (Yes) (-150) | 

Tips

• Four of Dortmund’s last six outings saw them net exactly twice.
• Hertha travel on a run of five straight away league defeats.
• Dortmund have won four of their previous five home league clashes vs Hertha.
• The visitors last won at Dortmund way back in December 2013.
• Six of Dortmund’s last seven Bundesliga home wins saw them score first within 30 minutes.

The two most recent of those saw the American dream Giovanni Reyna score the day’s final goal, as the 20-year old’s fine run of personal form continues:

The Word

By all rights, this should be as much of a squash as Hertha Berlin’s last road trip, when they began February by falling 3-0 at Frankfurt to make it four losses from as many games in 2023. But in following that up with a 4-1 demolition of mid-table Borussia Monchengladbach despite conceding first, they made the world eat a huge slice of humble pie.

With Bochum and Hoffenheim now firmly in Hertha’s grasping distance and still tanking, that win changed the complexion of the battle to avoid the relegation playoff, which comes via finishing 16th under the current format. But coming back in the same way from any early deficit here looks extremely unlikely.

Dortmund, like Union, are also perfect in 2023 so far, after exceeding the single-goal margin of victory predicted in last week’s picks. They controlled vast swathes of play in their 2-0 victory at Bremen on February 11, and with ‘Der BVB’ also scoring at least three times in their previous four home league games, this one seems like a foregone conclusion despite Hertha’s surprise surge.

PREDICTION: DORTMUND 3 – 0 HERTHA BERLIN (+700)

Prices correct as of Feb 13, 2023. Stats do not include ‘friendly’ or ‘exhibition’ matches.

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