Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens Expert Pick

The Ravens won in week three to avoid moving to 0-3. They play the Bills, Bengals, Commanders, and Buccaneers over the next four weeks, and it would have been tough starting with three losses. The Bills are the best team in the league and are in my power rankings. It should be a great matchup on Sunday Night Football between a desperate Ravens squad and the undefeated Bills. Read more Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens expert pick. 

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Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 29, 2024 @ 8:20 PM EST

Where: M&T Bank Stadium

TV: NBC

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens Expert Pick

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Buffalo Bills

The Bills dominated the Jaguars on Monday night, 47-10. Josh Allen threw for four TDs to four different receivers and led the team with 44 rushing yards. James Cook added a rushing TD and four catches for 48 yards.

The Bills have three players ruled out for Sunday night: linebacker Terrel Bernard (pectoral), cornerback Taron Johnson (forearm), and tackle Tylan Grable (groin).

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens took care of business in Dallas last week, 28-25. They had control for most of the game, and the Cowboys made it close late after recovering an onside kick. Derrick Henry had 151 yards on the ground and two TDs.

Cornerback Jalyn Armour-Davis (hamstring) is ruled out for this week. Left guard Andrew Vorhees (ankle) is listed as doubtful to play, and center Tyler Linderbaum (knee) is questionable.

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens Head-To-Head

The Ravens have shot themselves in the foot a lot this season. They have 31 penalties for 278 yards, 92.7 yards per game, and the highest in the league by 13. Buffalo is sixth on that list with 39 penalty yards per game. Baltimore needs to be more disciplined if they want to win this game.

Stopping the run is the Ravens’ specialty. They only allow 50 rushing yards per game, which is the best in the league. The reason is that they allow the most passing yards in the league (291.7 passing yards per game). Josh Allen has thrown for seven TDs and zero interceptions so far and has completed 75% of his passes. He has also done a great job spreading the ball to his young targets. Khalil Shakir leads the team with 14 targets and receptions. The Bills should be able to target whichever mismatch they want and score at will against this secondary.

The real question is how the Bills’ defense will hold up against the Ravens’ offense. The Bills have only allowed 16 points per game but gave up 28 to the Cardinals in week one. Kyler Murray led the Cardinals in rushing that day, which means Lamar Jackson may have some running lanes. Jackson averages 84.7 rushing yards per game and 7.3 yards per carry. He could become a problem if the Bills do not contain him.

Prediction

Over/Under

I expect this game to be close, which likely means the over wins. The Ravens cannot stop the pass, and Josh Allen will dice them up. Lamar Jackson will navigate this offense with his legs and find a way to score points to keep them in the game. Over 46.5

Spread

The Ravens have some glaring problems on their team, but they also have the reigning MVP. I expect Lamar Jackson to put this team on his back and somehow win. The Ravens need this game more than the Bills and cover at home. Ravens -2.5

Player Prop

Lamar Jackson is eighth in the league with 254 rushing yards. He has been unstoppable on the ground with one 100-yard rushing game. I like his rushing total over, and I also think taking his alternate rushing total up 100+ yards is not a bad play. If you did it last week, which I suggested here, Derrick Henry cashed for +400. Jackson is +600 to get 100 rushing yards on DraftKings and +450 on FanDuel . Lamar Jackson Over 57.5 rushing yards