Bucs vs. Chiefs Expert Pick

Bucs vs. Chiefs Expert Pick

The depleted Buccaneers will travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs on Monday night. It will be the first home game since week five for the Chiefs. Injuries have played a massive role in each team’s season, but only one team has been able to overcome them. We will see if the Buccaneers can play a spoiler to the Chiefs’ perfect season. Read more Bucs vs. Chiefs expert pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Falcons beat the Buccaneers 31-26 last week. It was their second consecutive loss, and it moved them to 4-4 on the season, 2-1 on the road, and 2-3 at home.

Mike Evans (hamstring) is not going to play this week. Defensive tackle Greg Gaines (calf) and long snapper Evan Deckers (hamstring) will also miss the game due to injury. Running back Bucky Irving has been dealing with a toe injury but should be able to play through it like last week. Wide receivers Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Jalen McMillan (hamstring) logged limited practices on Saturday and are questionable.

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Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 27-20 in Las Vegas last week. Travis Kelce caught his first touchdown of the season and added 10 catches for 90 yards. He and Patrick Mahomes should start to gain momentum as the season nears the playoffs.

Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) is ruled out on offense. Defensive end Michael Danna (pectoral) and safety Nazeeh Johnson (concussion) will not play on the defensive side.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Head-To-Head

There is a void at receiver for the Buccaneers. Mike Evans is out until the bye week, and Chris Godwin will miss the remainder of the season. The main targets in this offense last week were Cade Otton (10), Jalen McMillan (7), and Rachaad White (6). Shepard had five targets on 61% of snaps, and Trey Palmer played 70% but only saw two targets. McMillan popped up on the injury report late in the week, which is a bad sign, and Shepard is a 31-year-old receiver dealing with a hamstring injury. Steve Spagnuolo should create a good game plan to pressure Baker Mayfield and force him to trust these unknown targets.

The Buccaneers defense allows 387 total yards per game, which is the third-worst. They are fifth-worst in points allowed per game (26.6), and it all starts with their secondary. The Buccaneers allow 255.4 passing yards per game, but they will get safety Tykee Smith (concussion) back this week. Travis Kelce could feast in this matchup. The Buccaneers have allowed two touchdowns each to Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts over the last two weeks. Kelce has eight targets in the red zone, which leads the team. He should be productive this week.

Prediction

Over/Under

The Chiefs are a top defense in the league in points per game allowed, and the Bucs are bottom-five. I do not expect the Buccaneers to do much offensively this week, so it is on the Chiefs to score points. They have been leaning on Kareem Hunt when they have the lead recently, so the under is the play. Under 46

Spread

The Chiefs are the hardest team in the league to bet against. Mahomes always finds a way to win and usually covers. They are 5-2 against the spread this season, and I will side with them. Chiefs -9

Player Prop

I am going with a parlay this week. The reasoning for Kelce TD is above. Cade Otton was Mayfield’s security blanket last week. He saw 10 targets for the second consecutive week. The Chiefs allow the most (7) receptions per game to the tight end position. Over 4.5 receptions is -155, but paired with a Kelce touchdown, it makes it solid value. I love the parlay and am going to ladder Otton alternate receptions, as well. Travis Kelce Anytime TD + Cade Otton 04.5 Receptions +218