Braves vs. Padres: NL Wild Card Analysis
BRAVES VS. PADRES: NL WILD CARD ANALYSIS — Have the Braves finally run out of duct tape and chicken wire? Atlanta has been holding it together as best as it can ever since Spencer Strider went down for the season. And while the Braves have held things together well, they’ve always been kind of fragile because of the lack of their top pitcher.
And then on doubleheader day, it appeared that the bottom fell out.
The Braves had to burn through Spencer Schwellenbach to try to get the win in Game 1, and that didn’t work when the bullpen couldn’t hold the Mets at bay. That meant the Braves had to win Game 2, which meant Chris Sale coming in to save the day.
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Except back spasms kept Sale out of the game, leaving the Braves to scramble. Grant Holmes and the bullpen pitched admirably in the second game, but it leaves the pitching staff depleted. Atlanta’s pitching staff has become a big question mark, as Sale and Schwellenbach aren’t available for San Diego.
If Max Fried and Charlie Morton can hold up, Atlanta still has a chance. But the Braves are facing a rested San Diego team that’s been able to set its rotation. The Padres also have just one loss against a Braves pitcher that was not Sale. Of course, that one pitcher was Schwellenbach, which doesn’t help.
The Series
Game 1: Tuesday, October 1 at 8:30 p.m. EST
Game 2: Wednesday, October 2 at 8:30 p.m. EST
Game 3 (if necessary): Thursday, October 3 at 8:30 p.m. EST
TV: Game 1 and Game 3 will be shown on ESPN. Game 2 will be shown on ESPN2.
Where: All games will be played at Petco Park in San Diego.
Braves vs. Padres In-Season Trends
With Randy Vasquez now in the bullpen, San Diego doesn’t have the pitcher who was on the hill for two of its three losses to Atlanta. And that’s probably another advantage for the Padres, who have set up their rotation the way they wanted. In four wins over the Braves, the Padres won by at least two runs three times.
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One interesting thing about this matchup is that the losing team just seems to take the day off at the plate. Out of seven meetings this season, only two saw the losing team plate more than a single run.
Players to Watch
Both Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill have power in their bats, but neither has gotten it out of the park in the past week. Getting at least one of them going would make a big difference for San Diego’s run production.
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Max Fried should be a reliable option for the Braves, but things get iffy behind him. Fried needs to give the Braves’ bullpen a day off, because they’re almost certainly going to be needed over the course of the series.
The Prediction
Atlanta, if fully healthy, would have been a strong bet to win this matchup. But the Braves aren’t healthy and aren’t really set up to win a short series like this. There’s also the fact that the Braves had to go cross-country and immediately adjust their body clocks to California.
None of that is ideal for Atlanta’s chances. The Braves might steal a game, but it’s more likely that this doesn’t last very long.
Prediction: Padres in two
