Braves vs. Mets: Thursday, July 25, 2024

BRAVES VS. METS: THURSDAY, JULY 25, 2024 — Have the Mets gotten themselves back in the race, or have they simply figured out how to beat the Yankees? The Mets get to answer that question as they inch closer toward a postseason place following their second sweep of their city rivals. New York has won nine of its past 12 to pull 1.5 games back of Atlanta for the No. 4 slot in the National League. If the playoffs began today, the Mets would be facing the Braves in the wild card round.

Of course, the playoffs are still two months away, and the Mets haven’t proven they can handle the teams in the National League. They’re 4-0 against the Yankees, but they wouldn’t see the Yankees until the World Series. Against the other five teams currently in a postseason spot, the Mets are just 10-16.

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One of those teams is Atlanta, which might be opening the door for the Mets and others to walk on through. The Braves were never going to catch Philadelphia, but a hot start to the second half would have at least given them breathing room in fourth. Instead, the opposite happened. The Braves welcomed in St. Louis and dropped two of three, then got flattened by playoff longshot Cincinnati.

The Mets might own the Yankees, but at least most of their success come in the National League. Not so for Atlanta, which has a 22-12 record against the American League but is sub-.500 against its own league. Eventually, the Braves are going to run out of games against the junior circuit. And if they don’t figure out how to win in their own league soon, they’re going to be easy prey for the Mets.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Thursday, July 25 at 7:10 p.m. EST

Where: Citi Field, New York

Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale, ATL (13-3, 2.70 ERA, 159 K’s) vs. Luis Severino, NYM (6-3, 3.78 ERA, 81 K’s)

Public Bets: 53% on Atlanta

Public Money: 78% on Atlanta

Braves vs. Mets In-Season Trends

Chris Sale has had a career renaissance in moving to Atlanta. His biggest issue has been beating the lesser teams, as the Braves have won seven of his past 10 starts. The three exceptions were the White Sox, the Athletics and the Nationals, none of whom will sniff the postseason.

Tight games have been the norm in this series this season, as three of the teams’ six meetings have been decided by a single run. The totals have been dictated by where the game is played; all three games in New York have played to the under, while the over is 3-0 in Atlanta.

Players to Watch

Luis Severino needs to come up big at home. He’s been a much stronger pitcher in New York than elsewhere, and the Mets are counting on that in this matchup. For the year, he’s 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA at Citi Field, and a strong performance is key given what the Braves are sending to the mound.

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Marcell Ozuna saw a 10-game hit streak stopped on Wednesday against Cincinnati. Odds are that he isn’t going to go consecutive days without reaching base safely.

The Prediction

Something seems off with the Braves right now. Atlanta really isn’t playing well at the moment, and it’s most likely the fault of the hitters. It’s very hard to pick against Sale with how well he’s pitched all year, but Severino has done his job well at home and the Mets are surging.

A win here would do a lot for the Mets as they begin their push. I think they get it.