Boston College vs. Florida State Expert Pick and Prediction – September 2, 2024

BOSTON COLLEGE VS. FLORIDA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – September 2, 2024 — Is it already over for Florida State? The Seminoles really didn’t look good after the first drive against Georgia Tech, only waking up until the final possession. By then, it was too late; FSU had blown its chance and Tech played inspired football.

The Seminoles’ one saving grace is that outside of Coral Gables, the rest of the ACC looks rather incompetent. Clemson showed how wide the gap is between itself and Georgia, Virginia Tech managed a loss to Vanderbilt and the rest of the league was just kind of there. When the second-best thing you can point to is a last-second win at Minnesota (North Carolina), it wasn’t a great week for the conference.

Related: Why Clemson Coach Dabo Swinney is Sinking Fast

Boston College has resurfaced with Bill O’Brien, who proved himself to be a good coach and a bad general manager in his time in the NFL. Given how you have to be a little of both in college with recruiting, that’s concerning in the long term. In the short term, it could make the Eagles dangerous. O’Brien did win four division titles in Houston, and he’s got a history of getting the most out of his players.

Given how last year’s matchup went, the Seminoles really can’t afford to see much more from the Eagles. Boston College hasn’t managed to win against FSU in five tries, but the Eagles have been a real pain in the butt for the Seminoles over the past decade. Over the past 10 meetings, FSU is 9-1, but five of those wins were decided by one score. If the Seminoles haven’t fixed what went wrong in Ireland, this will prove tougher than expected again.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Monday, September 2 at 7:30 p.m. EST

Where: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla.

TV: ABC

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of September 2nd, 2024.

Boston College vs. Florida State In-Season Trends

Overs have tended to be the way to play with Boston College. The Eagles simply weren’t able to get stops last year, allowing everyone but Syracuse and Connecticut to break 24 points on them in the regular season. BC failed to cover in three straight to close the season, although it did land a cover against SMU in the bowl game.

Related: Best Futures Bets in the ACC

The Seminoles have now failed to cover in five of their past six actual games, excluding the bowl loss to Georgia where half the team opted out. The under has also cashed in five of six for FSU, with the lone exception coming when the Seminoles beat the number by themselves against North Alabama. 

Weather

They call it Tallanasty for a reason. After record-setting heat during the day, there will be thunderstorms left behind and 82 degree temperatures. A 40% chance of rain means the Seminoles could again be battling the elements.

The Difference-Makers

DJ Uiagalelei didn’t endear himself to anyone in Tallahassee with his Week 0 showing. He didn’t lose the game against Georgia Tech, but he didn’t go out and win it when the Seminoles needed that. He’s got to be more aggressive with the football and push the ball downfield consistently.

Related: North Carolina vs. Minnesota Pick and Prediction

Thomas Castellanos presents some of the same problems that Haynes King did last week for Georgia Tech. Castellanos can run or throw, and Florida State had a hard time containing him last year. The Seminoles’ defense doesn’t look up to the job so far.

The Pick

Boston College can hang around with FSU. The Eagles have shown that they are a tough out annually for the Seminoles, and Florida State really didn’t look good against a mediocre Georgia Tech. BC is probably around the same as the Yellow Jackets, and having the same kind of quarterback means the Eagles can exploit the FSU defense the same way.

Even with that, the under makes more sense, as FSU is more cautious with the ball and BC will likely want to draw drives out to keep itself in the game.