Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 4 Expert Pick And Predictions – April 29, 2024

BOSTON CELTICS VS. MIAMI HEAT GAME 4 EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS – APRIL 29, 2024 — Happy Monday, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Boston Celtics (66-19 SU, 43-37-5 ATS) taking on the Miami Heat (48-39 SU, 43-42-2 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, April 29, 2024 @ 7:30 PM ET

Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

TV: TNT, BSSUN, and NBCS-BOS

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Can The Celtics Take A Commanding 3-1 Series Lead Against Short-Handed Heat?

The Boston Celtics lost to the Heat in last year’s conference finals. So, facing them once again in the playoffs offered a shot at redemption, even if the Heat are missing multiple players.

Boston quickly learned that this Heat team was not going to simply roll over for them, as the No. 8 seed won Game 2 on their home court. But as Boston has done all season, the team responded in a big way with a 104-84 victory in Game 3.

Jayson Tatum spearheaded the Celtics’ scoring attack with 22 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists.

Jaylen Brown also scored 22 points, along with eight rebounds, three assists, and two steals. Kristaps Porzingis added 18 points and five rebounds on an efficient 5-for-9 effort from the field.

“We didn’t make too many adjustments,” Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said via ESPN. “We played a little bit harder, we played harder, and we dictated the physicality and the tempo of the game. It’s the simple things that you have to do under a high level of stress, high level of adversity. I thought our guys did a great job of dictating that tonight.”

Can Boston put together another defensive masterpiece, or will the Heat find a way to even the series at 2-2?

Will The Heat Respond To Blowout Loss In Game 3?

The Miami Heat needed to win two play-in tournament games for the second straight year to seize a postseason berth. But with Jimmy Butler set to miss the postseason, it would have been reasonable to presume that Miami did not stand a chance of hanging with the league’s top team in this series.

However, the Heat raised a few eyebrows as they took Game 2 by a 111-101 margin on Boston’s home floor. Unfortunately, that momentum did not carry over into the next game, as the Heat were blown out to the tune of 104-84.

Four of the Heat’s starters scored in double figures. Bam Adebayo led the way with 20 points, nine rebounds and three assists.

Nikola Jovic added 15 points and eight boards. Tyler Herro contributed 15 points but shot just 5-for-16 from the floor and 3-for-9 from beyond the arc. Rookie guard Jaime Jacquez Jr. scored 12 points on 5-for-13 shooting from the field, and he missed each of his three attempts from distance.

After shooting 23-for-43 from the 3-point line in Game 2, the Heat were not as efficient in Game 3, converting nine of their 21 attempts (32.1 percent). Despite their shortcomings in this area, Miami remains confident in its ability to knock down the long ball.

“Honestly, I think the (3-point) shots are still there,” Tyler Herro said after the game. “I have to do a better job of creating and making the right decisions when I get into the paint, the same with Bam (Adebayo), and just continue to make the right play like I’ve said this whole series.

With an injury-riddled roster, Miami must efficiently shoot the three-point shot. If not, they will return to Boston down 1-3 and face the possibility of being eliminated from the playoffs in five games.

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 4 showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Boston Celtics opened as a 10-point favorite. Currently, the line stands at 10.5 points for the home team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Celtics are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games against Miami.
• Meanwhile, the Heat are a woeful 5-10 ATS in their last 15 home games.
• Miami is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 April games.
• The Celtics have been favored to win by 10.5 points or more 30 times this season. Their against-the-spread record is 17-13 in those contests.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-10.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 203 points. The line has not moved at the time of this writing (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER 12 times in the Celtics’ last 17 games.
• The OVER total has cashed in 10 times in Boston’s last 13 matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The OVER total won seven times in the Celtics’ last nine games against Southeast Division teams.
• The total has gone OVER 11 times in the Heat’s last 15 outings.
• The OVER total is 11-3 in Miami’s last 14 contests against Eastern Conference opponents.
• In the Heat’s last eight games against teams in the Atlantic Division, the OVER total is 6-2.
• Boston and Miami average a combined 230.7 points per contest, which is 27.7 points higher than the projected points total for this matchup (203).
• The opponents of these two teams have averaged 217.6 points per contest, which is 14.6 points higher than the projected total for this matchup.

Prediction: OVER 203 points

Player Prop Bet

Since Miami needs a win in Game 4 to avoid a 1-3 hole, we will focus on the best player prop for this group. Bam Adebayo is the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -108 odds of scoring more than 19.5 points and -112 odds of finishing with less than 19.5 points.

Do Adebayo’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• Adebayo is averaging 19.4 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In six games against the Celtics this season, he has averaged 22.2 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Adebayo is averaging 21.7 points per outing.
• Adebayo has played against Eastern Conference teams 44 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 19.5 points per outing.
• In 18 matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, Miami’s big man is averaging 19.4 points per game.
• Lastly, over his last five outings, Adebayo has averaged 17.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Bam Adebayo OVER 19.5 points