Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers Expert Pick – January 6, 2024

BOSTON CELTICS VS. INDIANA PACERS EXPERT PICK – JANUARY 6, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of the games on tap from Saturday night’s slate features the Boston Celtics (27-7 SU, 17-15-2 ATS) taking on the Indiana Pacers (20-15 SU, 20-15 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Saturday, January 6, 2024 at 7:00 PM ET

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

TV: BSIN and NBCS-BOS

Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Celtics Snap The Pacers’ Six-Game Winning Streak?

Boston Celtics Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.8 PPG – 5^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 121.9 points per 100 possessions – 2^ND
• Scoring Defense: 110.8 PPG – 5^TH     
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.8 points per 100 possessions – 5^TH

The Boston Celtics enter this matchup having won eight of their previous 10 decisions. This includes a 126-97 triumph over the Utah Jazz on Friday night. Jayson Tatum paced Boston’s scoring attack with 30 points, nine rebounds, and five assists. Kristaps Porzingis added 19 points and five boards.

Boston led by 15 after the first quarter and by as many as 36 points in the first half. From a defensive standpoint, the Celtics held Utah to 36 percent shooting and 17.6 percent from 3-point range.

Although the Celtics are 17-0 at home, they are 10-7 outside of TD Garden. It will be interesting to see how they play against the highest-scoring team in the league on the road.

Pacers’ League-Best Offense Will Be Tested Against Celtics “D”

Indiana Pacers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 126.9 PPG – 1^ST
• Offensive Efficiency: 122.8 points per 100 possessions – 1^ST
• Scoring Defense: 124.6 PPG – 29^TH   
• Defensive Efficiency: 120.5 points per 100 possessions – 26^TH

Meanwhile, the Pacers enter this matchup with a 7-3 record across their last 10 outings, and they have posted wins in each of their last six contests. This includes a 150-116 victory over the Atlanta Hawks. Myles Turner scored a team-high 27 points and grabbed five rebounds. Bruce Brown added 17 points, while Tyrese Haliburton contributed 18 assists, 10 points, and eight rebounds.

This was an offensive explosion of sorts for the Pacers. They recorded a franchise-best 50 assists. No, that is not a misprint. This also marked the second time they have scored 150 points against the Hawks this season. Indiana won the previous meeting between these teams 157-152 back on Nov. 21.

While the numbers Indiana put up against the Hawks are impressive, the Celtics are a top-five team in both points allowed and efficiency. In other words, Indiana can expect a much better defensive effort than what they faced against Atlanta on Friday night.

Now, let us look at the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Celtics opened as a consensus 5.5-point favorite. The line has recently moved six points. Here is a look at how both teams have performed against the spread this season.

• The Celtics are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• Boston is 2-5 ATS in their last seven matchups against Indiana.
• The Cs are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight January games.
• The Pacers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six contests.
• Indiana is 5-0 in its last five matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.

Based on the above trends, going with the Pacers looks like a good play here.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers (+6)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 245.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 247.5 points. Here is a look at why going with the “OVER” is the smart choice here.

• The total has gone OVER seven times in the Celtics’ last nine outings.
• In Boston’s last six road games, the OVER total prevailed five times.
• The OVER total has cashed in four times in the Celtics’ last five road matchups against Indiana.
• The OVER total has hit for Indiana 10 times in its last 15 matchups against Boston.
• In the Pacers’ last six home games, the OVER total hit five times.

Prediction: OVER 247.5 points

Player Prop Bet

The key player to watch for the road team is Jayson Tatum. He currently has -145 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and +114 odds of scoring less than 27.5 points. Let’s look at how his numbers compare with the projected scoring total.

• On the season, Tatum is averaging 27.1 points per outing.
• Tatum has played against Eastern Conference teams 24 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.5 points per outing.
• Tatum has played in three Saturday night games this season. In those outings, he is averaging 29.7 PPG.
• In 16 road games, he is averaging 26.7 PPG.
• Over his last 10 outings, he is averaging 26.6 points per outing.

Based on the above trends, I am going with the “over” for Tatum in this matchup.

Prediction: Jayson Tatum OVER 27.5 points

The key player to watch for the home team is Tyrese Haliburton. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 24.5 points. Here is a look at how his season splits stack up against his projected scoring total for this matchup.

• On the season, Haliburton is averaging 24.4 points per outing which is remarkably close to the 24.5 total for this matchup.
• In 18 home games, he is averaging 23.2 PPG.
• Haliburton has played against Eastern Conference teams 25 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 25 PPG.
• In five matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, Haliburton is averaging 27.8 PPG.
• He has played four times on Saturday this season. His points-per-game average in those contests is 28.8.

Given the above trends, going with “over” for Haliburton looks like a safe bet here.

Prediction: Tyrese Haliburton OVER 24.5 points