Boston Celtics vs. Houston Rockets Expert Pick – January 21, 2024

BOSTON CELTICS VS. HOUSTON ROCKETS EXPERT PICK – JANUARY 21, 2024 –Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from Sunday’s slate features the Boston Celtics (32-10 SU, 21-19-2 ATS) taking on the Houston Rockets (20-21 SU, 20-18-2 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, January 21, 2024

Time: 7:00 PM ET

Where: Toyota Center

Location: Houston, TX

TV: Space City Home Network and NBCS-BOS

Boston Celtics vs. Houston Rockets Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Boston Celtics vs. Houston Rockets — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Celtics Bounce Back From Their First Home Loss Of The Season?

Boston Celtics Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.4 PPG – 5^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 121.3 points per 100 possessions – 2^ND
• Scoring Defense: 110.7 PPG – 3^RD       
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.5 points per 100 possessions – 2^ND

The Celtics come into this matchup with six wins in their last 10 games. This includes a 102-100 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Friday night. The loss snapped Boston’s 20-0 start at TD Garden.

Derrick White led the way for Boston with 24 points, five rebounds and three assists. Jayson Tatum added 22 points, eight rebounds, and five assists while Kristaps Porzingis contributed 21 points, eight rebounds, and two assists.

Following an outing in which they shot just 42.7 percent from the field against the Nuggets, it will be interesting to see how the Celtics will hold up against a Rockets team that boasts a top-10 defense.

Can The Rockets Hand The Celtics Their Second Straight Loss?

Houston Rockets Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 112.2 PPG – 22^ND   
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.3 points per 100 possessions – 21^ST   
• Scoring Defense: 111.7 PPG – 8^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.7 points per 100 possessions – 6^TH

On the other side of this matchup, The Rockets have produced four wins in their last 10 games. This includes a 127-126 overtime victory against the Utah Jazz on Saturday night.

Alperen Sengun spearheaded Houston’s scoring attack with 37 points, 14 rebounds, and assists.

Jabari Smith Jr. added 24 points, 10 rebounds, and two steals while Fred VanVleet contributed 18 points, seven assists, and five rebounds.

“Those wins are satisfying, no doubt,” Rockets coach Ime Udoka said after the game. “Not just the overtime part but how we gutted it out. A lot of guys got a chance to win a real tough basketball game, so it was good for them.”

Houston looks to earn its second straight home win against Boston following a road trip in which it dropped five of its six decisions.

Now that we have set the table for this East vs. West matchup, let us closely examine the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Celtics opened as a 10-point favorite. The line has moved to 11 points for the road team.

Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Houston.
• Boston is 6-3 ATS in its last nine road contests.
• The Celtics are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 January contests.
• The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven contests.
• Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five January games.

Based on these trends, going with the road team to cover the spread is the best option here.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-11)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 231 points. The line has recently moved to 227 points. Here is why going with the “UNDER” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Celtics’ last five games.
• The UNDER total has hit 14 times In Boston’s last 18 road contests against Houston.
• In the Rockets’ last six games against the Celtics, the UNDER total cashed in five times.
• In Houston’s last five Sunday games, the UNDER total prevailed four times.

Prediction: UNDER 227 points

Team Prop Bets

At the time of this writing, there were no player prop bets available. With that in mind, we will go in a different direction by looking at the team prop bets info from both sides.

The Celtics currently have -110 odds of scoring more than 120.5 points and -120 odds of scoring less than 120.5 points. Here is a look at how the team’s season splits stack up against the projected points total.

• On the season, the Celtics are averaging 120.4 points per outing.
• These teams clashed back on Jan. 13. The Celtics won that contest by a 145-113 margin.
• In 21 road games, Boston is averaging 122.9 PPG.
• The Celtics have played against Western Conference teams 13 times this season. In those contests, they are averaging 118.4 points per outing.
• During January – a sample size of 10 games — Boston is averaging 119.4 PPG.
• The Celtics have faced Southwest Division four times this season. In those games, they averaged 124.5 PPG.

Going with the “over” for the Celtics is the smart play based on the above trends.

Prediction: Boston Celtics OVER 120.5 points

Meanwhile, the Rockets have -115 odds of scoring more than 107.5 points and -115 odds of scoring less than 107.5 points. Let us see how their numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, the Rockets are averaging 112.6 points per outing.
• In the previous regular-season matchup between these two teams, the Rockets scored 113 points.
• In 22 home games, Houston is averaging 114.3 PPG.
• The Rockets have played against Eastern Conference teams 16 times this season. In those contests, they are averaging 116.3 points per outing.
• During January – a sample size of 11 games – Houston is averaging 113.5 PPG.
• The Rockets have played against teams in the Atlantic Division five times this season. In those games, they have averaged 112.2 PPG.

Given the above trends, going with the “over” for the Rockets is the smart play here.

Prediction: Houston Rockets OVER 107.5 points